Tag Archives: steve keen

The Only Aussie Economist To Predict The GFC Shows Treasury Department How The Economy Really Works

26 Apr

This past Friday, Professor Steve Keen – the only Australian economist to predict the GFC and give cogent reasons why, and thus one of very few economists in the world who is not a danger to the public – gave this superb, by-invitation (!?!) presentation to staff at the Australian Treasury department.

If you want to gain a better understanding of how the economy actually works – as opposed to how all the people who run the country ass-ume it works – I highly recommend making time to watch the whole thing.

One of many highlights for me came in the question time following Steve’s presentation (1:09:20):

“One of my students put a beautiful question to me once saying, ‘Is the finance sector a Profit centre, or a Cost centre to be minimised?’ It is the latter.”

Logical inference: We must minimise the size (and power) of the finance sector.

The excesses of the finance sector are built, primarily, on the Twin Pillars of currency exclusivity (legal tender laws) … and the power of usury.

Breaking those twin pillars is where any realistic long term “solution” must begin. For those interested, this is my idea for how to begin doing that.

Enjoy this brilliant presentation by Steve Keen, and follow him on Twitter @ProfSteveKeen -

* Please help educate others, by sharing this video.

EU Madness: Bank Deposits Stolen For Bailout Of Cyprus

17 Mar

Cross-posted from a project update on Professor Steve Keen’s MINSKY Kickstarter fundraiser (please donate now, ends tomorrow a.m.).

This is big. HUGE:

Madness in the European Union

I write a weekly column for the Australian online newspaper Business Spectator. Today’s startling news out of Europe will be this week’s topic, and given how topical this is I thought I’d share my reactions with Kickstarters:

Europe Goes Troppo

John Lennon’s best line in a lifetime of song-writing was “Life is what happens when you’re busy making other plans”. I had planned today to write about the excellent Atlantic Monthly The Economy Summit 2013 conference I spoke at in Washington on Wednesday, where it seemed that senior figures in the US were finally starting to realize that private debt, not public, was the main game in a debt-deflation.

Then “I read the news today, oh boy”: I woke at 4am to the news that the EU has confiscated 10% of depositors’ funds in its “bailout” of Cyprus. Lennon didn’t go far enough. It seems political suicide is also what happens when you’re busy making other plans. If there was one lesson that I thought the world had learnt from the Great Depression, it was the need to guarantee depositors’ funds.

So much for that fantasy. Now the EU has shown that its obsession with austerity has gone so far that even this historical wisdom has been abandoned. Not only are depositors’ funds not guaranteed, they are being lost even in banks that have not (yet) failed. Many banks are likely to fail however, if depositors come to believe—as this action gives them every right to believe—that their savings are not safe in banks. The public’s first response will be to no longer trust the digital 1s and 0s in their bank statements, and to demand their funds in cold, hard cash. The only way to do this is to front up at the bank, present it with a withdrawal equivalent to the deposit balance, and wait for the teller to count out the notes.

The public will be waiting a while: the cash currently simply doesn’t exist. Currency constitutes only a tiny percentage of the aggregate money supply—whether defined as that found in bank at-call cheque and savings accounts (M2), or including term deposits and other not-at-call accounts (M3). If everyone wants it, then only one in twenty will get it, if Europe’s figures are at all comparable to America’s.

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That’s why a collapse in confidence in deposits is called a bank run: only those who run first to the bank get their money.

Only Cypriots — and Russians, who apparently put substantial funds in Cyprus, probably in search of either a safe haven or high returns (that’s one trivia question I don’t know the answer to) — have an immediate motivation to demand cash, but they won’t be able to, thanks to a “bank holiday” in Cyprus on Monday, and withdrawal restrictions from Tuesday on.

But what about depositors in the other Mediterranean states—in fact, anywhere other than Germany? I can’t imagine them not queuing at their banks on Monday, and in large numbers.

With the inability of individuals to freely withdraw funds will come a political credit crunch. Commerce relies upon the easy transfer of funds from buyer to seller. Companies can’t have these restrictions imposed on their accounts without causing commerce to grind to a halt, but surely their suppliers—particularly tradesmen and small businesses—are going to demand cash payments in future. What happens when companies start demanding cash from their banks, rather than relying upon e-commerce?

What will happen to e-commerce after this? Would you trust the swipe of a card for a cappuccino now, or would you demand coin—even if they were Euro coins? And what on earth will money markets make of this? What will a Euro be worth on Monday morning?

Goldbugs will rejoice I am sure—here comes the currency apocalypse they have eagerly anticipated. The Bitcoin community is going to rejoice as well—theirs is one form of e-commerce that is likely to prosper after this insane act. The great attraction of Bitcoin is that it is the creature of no State, and therefore it can’t be confiscated by one.

There will be political demands for the return to national currencies: better the national State you can control than the supra-national State that controls yours. I can’t think of any other act that could do more to bring the Euro to an end than the news that a country has had 10% of its deposits confiscated, because that nation was foolish enough to cede the right to issue its own currency to the European Union a decade ago.

This will also surely stir the Russian Bear. I have no idea which Russians have funds that are now being used to bailout European banks, but I doubt that Vladimir Ilyich … I’m sorry, I mean Vladimir Putin … will take kindly to this effective seizure of Russian assets. Putin certainly has to act: his strongman image in Russia would be in tatters if he did not. What might his comeback be—turning off Russian gas supplies to Europe perhaps, until Russian depositors are repaid? And probably in dollars rather than Euros? What then in Europe, if strongman tactics force compensation for Russians, but none is forthcoming for Cypriots?

The most ominous political portent lies in the legitimacy this will bestow on the Far Right. This betrayal of the people of Cyprus by its politicians and bureaucrats will be seized upon by the fascist (and leftist) parties throughout Europe. The centrist parties whose politicians and bureaucrats have insisted on depositors contributing to a bank bailout to appease German voters have just thrown the center away.

God knows what the long term consequences will be, but if I had to identify one single act that could lead to a rerun of the political chaos of the 1930s in Europe today, this would be it. I began this post with John Lennon. Maybe the story will end with the resurrection of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. But in the interim I expect that the Right—and most immediately, Golden Dawn in Greece—will make the most political capital out of Brussels’s incredible folly

I’ve written this quite literally “up in the air” — flying from Washington to Los Angeles — wondering what else will have occurred by the times I touchdown. Surely there will be a reaction by Cypriots today—and demonstrations elsewhere in Europe by both Left and Right. These might cause some backdown by the idiot bureaucrats and politicians who forged this plan, but even then it will be too late: the damage to the credibility of the Euro and the entire European banking system will already have been done.

Monday is going to be a very interesting day in Europe. And Tuesday in Cyprus? I would not like to be a bank teller on that day.

As I’ve been saying…

Do not – not for a moment – think that this will not impact us here in Australia.

Wars have begun over less.

See also -

UPDATE:

It has begun. From BBC News:

Cyprus bailout: Man threatens bank with bulldozer

People in Cyprus have reacted with shock to news of a one-off levy of up to 10% on savings as part of a 10bn-euro (£8.7bn; $13bn) bailout agreed in Brussels.

Savers queued at cash machines amid resentment at the charge, while co-operative credit societies shut to prevent a run on deposits.

At one Kyperounta Co-operative bank branch, a frustrated man parked his bulldozer outside, apparently threatening to break in.

UPDATE 2:

excavator cyrpus_0

UPDATE 3:

From Zero Hedge (emphasis in original):

But it doesn’t stop there: a partial “bail-in” of junior bondholders is also possible, as for the first time ever the entire liability structure of a European bank – even if it is a Cypriot bank – is open season for impairments. The logical question: why here, and why now? And what happens when the Cypriot bank run that has taken the country by storm this morning spreads everywhere else, now that the scab over Europe’s biggest festering wound is torn throughout the periphery as all the other PIIGS realize they too are expendable on the altar of mollifying voters and investors in the other countries that make up Europe’s disunion.

For the real response, look to Russia:

The island’s bailout had repeatedly been delayed amid concerns from other EU states that its close business relations with Russia, and a banking system flush with Russian cash, made it a conduit for money-laundering.

“My understanding is that the Russian government is ready to make a contribution with an extension of the loan and a reduction of the interest rate,” said the EU’s top economic official, Olli Rehn.

Almost half of [Cyprus'] depositors are believed to be non-resident Russians, but most of those queuing on Saturday at automatic teller machines to pull out cash appeared to be Cypriots.

While “saving”, pardon the pun, yet another insolvent country merely has the intent of keeping it in the Eurozone, and thus preserving Europe’s doomed monetary block and bank equity for a little longer, this idiotic plan will achieve two things: i) infuriate not just Russians but very wealthy, and very trigger-happy Russians. The revenge of Gazpromia will be short and swift, and we certainly would not want to be Europeans next winter when the average heating level of Western European will depend on the whims of Russian natural gas pipeline traffic; ii) start a wave of bank runs first in Cyprus and soon everywhere else that has the potential of being the next Cyprus.

Now the only thing unknown is Russia’s response:

Corporate tax rates in Cyprus will rise to 12.5 percent to 10 percent as part of the deal, Dijsselbloem said. Rehn told reporters that Russia, whose banks have loaned as much as $40 billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin, would ease terms on its existing loans to Cyprus as the rescue unfolds. Cyprus’s finance minister is scheduled to fly to Moscow on March 20.

What is known, however is that Cypriots have taken the news in stride…. and to their local ATM machine, which sadly is showing the following message: “Your transaction has been cancelled due to a technical issue. This ATM cannot complete withdrawals at this time” (courtesy of Yannis Mouzakis).

Cyprus ATM two_0

It didn’t take long before the Cyprus Cooperative bank issued a statement saying “some ATMs run out of cash” – by some they likely mean all as the entire country is now gripped in a full force depositor run.

Congratulations Cyprus savers – you were just betrayed by both your politicians, and by Europe – sorry, but you are the “creeping impairments” in the game known as European bankruptcy. And so is anywhere between 6.75% and 9.9% of your money, which you were foolish enough to keep with your banks (where at least you were compensated with a savings yield of… 0%).

More importantly, as of this morning Europe has finally grasped that there is a 6.75% to 9.9% premium to holding physical cash in your mattress rather than having it stored with your local friendly insolvent bank.

UPDATE 4:

From Zero Hedge:

As the President of Cyprus proclaims to his people that “we’ should all take responsibility as his historic decision will “lead to the permanent rescue of the economy,” it appears that the settled-upon 9.9% haircut is a ‘good deal’ compared to the stunning 40% of total deposits that Germany’s FinMin Schaeuble and the IMF demanded.

A History Of The Legal Case Against Usury

24 Feb
Schistosoma_mansoni2

Schistosoma mansoni is an endoparasite that lives in human blood vessels.

Regular readers will know that I am an ardent opponent of the practice of usury.

In the classical meaning of the word.

Indeed, it is my view that the practice of usury is The Key to the power of the money-lenders.

While many others have argued that the key to their power is their exclusive right to create money (debt) whenever they make a loan, I tend to disagree.

In the absence of the legal right to charge interest (usury) on those loans, the money-lenders’ power would be effectively nobbled.

They could be replaced by full public banking. Or by alternate, free currency solutions like my own.

This key issue of the charging of interest on “money” lending, its origins, and its legal history, is awash with myths, theories, distortions, and outright falsehoods.

There are many eloquent and brilliant advocates for the alleged “need” for the charging (and offering) of a rate of usury on money. The theory of the so-called “time-value of money” is commonly cited in justification of what is, in truth, plain and simple parasitism -

Parasitism is a non-mutual relationship between organisms of different species where one organism, the parasite, benefits at the expense of the other, the host.

First used in English 1539, the word parasite comes from the Medieval French parasite, from the Latin parasitus, the latinisation of the Greek παράσιτος (parasitos), “one who eats at the table of another” and that from παρά (para), “beside, by” + σῖτος (sitos), “wheat”. Coined in English in 1611, the word parasitism comes from the Greek παρά (para) + σιτισμός (sitismos) “feeding, fattening.”

What I hope to do in today’s post is dispel some of the banking industry’s most powerful falsehoods.  That the charging (and offering) of “interest” on money is normal. That, at worst, it is a “necessary evil”.  That it is really something natural, and good, like a law of the universe, and vital to keeping our world turning.

I also hope to encourage readers to STOP using the banksters’ language.

And instead, to “call each thing by its right name.”

The original word used for the charging of interest on money … is USURY.

Usury does not mean charging “excessive” rates of interest.

The etymology of the word “usury” shows that it originally meant the charging of any interest, at all:

usury (n.)

c.1300, from Medieval Latin usuria, from Latin usura “usury, interest,” from usus, from stem of uti (see use (v.)). Originally the practice of lending money at interest, later, at excessive rates of interest.

How very convenient for the modern day money-lenders, that we have changed our language over the centuries.

No doubt with more than a little help from our “friends”.

In researching for more information on the origins of the word “usury”, recently I happened across an article published in the American Bar Association Journal, Volume 51, September 1965. It was written by a J.L. Bernstein, NYU Law School graduate and editor-in-chief of the New York State Bar journal. Following are some extended excerpts. It really is fascinating stuff.

But if you are tempted to leave before finishing, please do me one favour. Skip to the end, and read my closing observations concerning ancient Sumeria, the true origin of debt jubilees and New Year’s Eve celebrations, and the deeper meaning behind the Biblical story of Abraham.

Now, to the history of the legal case against usury (my bold emphasis added):

Background of a Gray Area in Law: The Checkered Career of Usury

Tracing the ancient and medieval history and development of usury, Mr Bernstein shows that at first it was any charge for the use of property, but later became only the charge of excessive interest on money. With the advent of our present consumer society, various procedures and methods of conditional selling have enabled what might otherwise be usury to escape illegality. It is time, the author suggests, to delineate what is fact and what is fiction in this shadowy world.

A CASE MAY BE MADE for usury as one of the oldest professions of man, yet the complexities of modern economic life “make fundamental a review” of the problem, as the late C.S. Lewis, Oxford and Cambridge don, scholar and theologian pointed out. The checkered career of usury cum interest is too long to detail here, but this mixed question of theology and law has always been a gray area for the courts – a veritable hodgepodge of legal decision, as this Journal once put it, with “no clearcut rationale”.

Even an elementary statement in a leading New Jersey case is questionable. The Supreme Court said: “Although the common law did not prohibit usurious exactions, our statutes have done so since 1738.” This view of the common law is challenged in Mark Ord’s authoritative Essay on the Law of Usury (1809), which states: “Usury in its strict and legal sense was always considered unlawful.” Likewise, Robert Buckley Comyn says: “Usury was in England an object of hatred and legal animadversion at least as early as the time of Alfred; and Glanville, Fleta, and Bracton bear ample testimony to the abhorrence in which it was held.”

All Interest Once Was Usury

At common law a usurious contract could not be enforced, and usury appears to have been an indictable offense, the punishment for it being fines and imprisonment. The fact is that from the earliest recorded times until the later Middle Ages even interest was forbidden by both canon and civil law, for interest then was synonymous with usury. Indeed, interest had no significant usage in English law until the statute of 21 Jac. 1, c. 17 (1624), although it had been employed in commerce, having been adapted from the Justinian Code of the Roman Empire.

The Lombard merchants, the principal moneylenders of medieval times, had made it a practice to charge a penalty on default, and the custom spread. Thus interest was not a charge for the use of money, but an exaction to make the creditor “whole”. In time it came to mean permissible usury, but it is noteworthy that neither the Old nor the New Testament recognizes this concept, except for the new Catholic edition of the Holy Bible (1954) which substitutes interest for usury and banker for exchanger.

Comyn describes the gradual transformation: “Usury was an offense which having first become odious from religious prejudices, at length became the object of political consideration, and parliamentary restraint. And as at first the taking of any profit upon money was denominated usury, so afterwards, when such profit was authorized by law, the profit was termed interest, and the illegal excess alone retained the odious name.” Thus usury began as malum in se, but at least from the time of Charlemagne in the ninth century (he considered all profit as “filthy lucre”), the secular arm had sought to reinforce the spiritual, making it also malum prohibitum. Speaking of the earliest English statutes, those of Henry VII (1487-1495), Coke declared that all usury was “damned and prohibited”. According to an ancient book of the Exchequer, entitled Magister et Tiburiensis, usury was ranked with murder as an offense.

But the general detestation was diminished by 37 Hen. 8, c. 9 (1545) which, while entitled “A Bill Against Usury”, tacitly legalized it to a maximum of 10 per cent per annum. This statute inaugurated the serviceable fiction that usury no longer meant any interest, but only excessive interest. As Ord puts it, this was the first English statute to “give any connivance to the practice of lending at interest”.

The statute still called usury “a thing unlawful”; it was an attempt at moderation, following the lead of the church. Earlier attempts to ban all interest had failed ignobly, but so did this new approach, and by 5 & 6 Edward 6, c. 20 (1552), repeal made interest and usury one and the same again. But this didn’t work, as before, and 13 Eliz. 1, c. 8 (1571) repealed the Edwardian edicts and revived the statute of Henry VIII. In order, 21 Jac. 1, c. 17 (1624); 12 Car. 2, c. 13 (1660); and 12 Anne, c. 16 (1713), toyed mainly with the rates, which went from a maximum of 10, to 8, to 6 and finally to 5 per cent in the statue of Anne of 1713. This is the one followed in this country. But the most common maximum rate of 6 per cent is derived from the Justinian Code.

The statute of 12 Anne, which served as a common model here, was abrogated 110 years ago in England by 17 & 18 Vict., c. 90 (1854). Therefore, the mother country has no general usury law today and interest of 48 per cent may be quite legal – even more, if the courts can be convinced. As H. Shields Rose puts it in his book, The Churches and Usury (1908), this was “the final capitulation of the state … as regards the maintenance of a legal maximum rate of interest in England”.

Note:  The abrogation of this 183-year-old English law placing limits on the charging of interest, came just ten years after the privately-owned Bank of England was granted exclusive power to issue the nation’s banknotes (Bank Charter Act, 1844). Coincidence? I think not.

The etymology of usury is from the Latin words usa and aera, meaning “the use of money”. But both by ecclesiastical and civil law it was always held that usury could exist in nonpecuniary transactions as well. Many state statutes, following the language of 12 Anne, speak generally of “money, wares, merchandise, goods and chattels”. The Bible is more inclusive: “Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury.”

But courts that maintain that usury was not prohibited by the common law are on firmer ground if they mean thereby the common law as it was interpreted by the colonial judges here. Blackstone says that the common law of England consists of “That ancient collection of unwritten maxims and customs …”. Our early courts seemed to regard English authority on the subject so dubious, indifferent or contradictory that, without legislative enactment, anything by way of usury was legal. This led to such abuses that the colonists petitioned for action, and general usury statutes were adopted everywhere.

It is useless to deny that confusion abounded in the common law, for usury was no less a gray area and a hodgepodge of thinking then. Coke, for example, said that: “All usury is not only against the law of God [but] the laws of the realm, and against the law of nature.” But on another occasion he avers that what was actually forbidden was “biting usury”, i.e., unconscionable charges…

Note: It is your humble blogger’s firm opinion that, in a technological age where 97% of all “money” is no more than electronic binary code, mere digital bookkeeping entries, created at the click of a bankers’ mouse in the form of new debt, there is no question that ALL usury charges are unconscionable.

Genesis of the Problem Is of Ancient Origin

But if the common law is no less a puzzle than our decisional law, the trouble goes far back – to Holy Writ itself. Until the later Middle Ages all interest was interdicted, for it was abhorrent that money – “barren” as Aristotle and the inspired writers of the early Church had taught – should increase unnaturally while lying fallow. That a lender should profit in his own idleness and that a borrower should be charged even though he may have lost money in the transaction, both were intolerable. Indeed, the worst form of usury in medieval times is considered a most respectable practice in our own. This was the custom of paying interest from the day of the loan. Banks today not only pay interest “from the date of deposit”, but even from before, so that money deposited by the fifteenth of a month will draw interest from the first.

Note how the author first refers to “paying interest from the day of the loan”, then immediately switches gears to speak of banks paying interest “from the day of deposit”? This is a classic and oh so subtle mind trick, commonly used in justification of the practice of charging interest on lending. How so? By redirecting the focus of the argument on the fact that banks pay interest as well.  It is a clever distraction, because what is overlooked, is that banks never pay more interest than they charge. As a so-called “intermediary” in the payments system of the economy, the banks achieve the easiest of profits.  Not just because they charge more interest than they pay, which in itself would be a form of parasitism. But because they are not mere intermediaries – banks are able to create money (debt), and charge interest on it.  Contrary to popular belief, banks do not simply lend out money deposited by other customers. See The World’s Most Immoral Institution Tells You How

We have come a long way in our view of the fertility of money. But, oddly, the statute of James I, which gave the word interest its first significance in Anglo-Saxon law, contained the proviso that “… no words in this statute contained shall be construed or expounded to allow a practice [of charging interest] in point of religion or conscience”. But what did morality actually hold? That is the most vexatious of all inquiries.

The Fifteenth Psalm is clear without cavil: “Lord, who shall abide in thy tabernacle? Who shall dwell in thy holy hill … He that putteth not out his money to usury…”. Throughout the Bible the angry prophets denounce what the early theologians called “horrible and damnable sinne”. But there are also loopholes born of contradiction, and the frustrations of the moralists came to be visited upon the jurists.

Although the quoted passage from Deuteronomy forbids all usury, the next verse is most tantalizing: “Unto a stranger thou mayest lend upon usury; but unto thy brother thou shalt not lend upon usury…”. What does this mean?

Indeed. There is much that can be said, and much evidence raised, in answer to that question.  But we will leave that particular controversy for another time.

From Biblical times until the later Middle Ages, a moneylender was simply a usurer, and a banker an exchanger. The distinction of moderate usury, called interest, received no recognition in the Church until after the Reformation. In a sense, therefore, the liberalization of religious thought also marked the turn to the “Money Society”, in which the medium of exchange achieved the status of a commodity of intrinsic value and became the lifeblood of commerce. The burgeoning materialism of the age, trading on the discovery of the New World, was in a mood no longer to tolerate philosophical and religious thought treating money as “infertile” and profit from it as “unnatural”, since it was not endowed by God or nature “with genital and procreative faculties” in the words of St. Basil (fourth century). In the end, it was the lawgiver, Justinian, who prevailed, rather than the philosophers and theologians.

And there you have it. What has ultimately prevailed with respect to usury, is the code of man. The Corpus Juris Civilis of the “lawgiver”, Justinian, a ruler of the late Roman Empire (c. 529AD), are the foundational documents of the Western legal tradition. It is ancient Roman law that serves as legal justification for the resurrected, and globally-dominating practice of usury in our day.

Theory of Moderate Usury or Interest Is Approved

This same logic, that there is nothing immoral about usury, was advanced in Parliament in the last century during the debates on the proposed abolition of the general usury statute of 12 Anne. “God did not so hate it, that he utterly forbade it”, contended one member; while another stated: “He could not have desired that the ban against all usury should be of moral and universal application”, for the Bible did not so clearly provide. An economist with the United States Treasury Department even advanced the view that usury could be traced “to the Creator Himself”, who first caused “all things to grow and increase”.

Nevertheless, that the total prohibition of all interest was at the center of canonist doctrine until the later Middle Ages is clear. “Not until sixteen hundred years after Christ did interest find any defenders”, proclaimed Roger Fenton. Then it was the Church which led the way to its acceptance, and the State which followed. Two principal reasons may be advanced for it: (1) the growing power of economic forces which chafed under enforced unselfishness and (2) the equivocations of Scriptures which encouraged the casuistries of “permissible instances”. Ultimately, perhaps, it was a hopeless struggle against human cupidity, or maybe only against “progress” for it is unlikely that, no matter what position it assumed, the Church could have stemmed the tide that was running.

Assailed on either side by those who, like St. Basil, called usury “the last pitch of inhumanity” and those who found it out of harmony with the facts of life, the Church sought to steer a middle course. Since its primary object has always been to protect the weak against the economically strong, it saw justifications for exceptions in commercial transactions between sophisticated parties.

“Sophisticated” parties? Now where have we heard that justification used more recently?

Moreover, on the allegation that, after 16 centuries, the Church succumbed to the pressures of economic greed and “progress”, it behooves one to point out that, in doing so, its ecclesiastical leaders and learned theologians all managed to lose sight of the simplest teachings of their own namesake, The Christ: 

“No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and money.”

It is this blogger’s view that the vast, unfathomable wealth of “the Church” – the sheer obscenity of which induced a sense of nausea on his sole tour of the Vatican – stands as ample testimony to the identity of which “master” it has long chosen to serve.

“Interest”, laconically comments Roger Fenton, “is the brat of commerce.” By what Mark Twain would have called “theological gymnastics” the Church has been charged with acquiescing in contrivances and subterfuges; and its capitulation to usury – limited or otherwise – has been held to constitute a virtual abdication of the precept against avarice, a former “venal” sin.

The Church first approved the idea of interest as it originated in the Justinian Code, which implied a justified penalty on default, although it is likely that this in itself was a subterfuge to avoid the ban against usury. But theological approval of the dammum emergens, for actual loss incurred, was not satisfactory to business or its lawyers, who argued also for the lucrum cessans, certain gain lost. This the Church resisted for at least a century more, for it was not ready to concede that money, the love of which is “the root of all evil” in the Bible, was fertile. But in time it acceded to this, provided that the money was lent for an initial gratis period. Thus, technically, the interest was still not for the use of money, but as compensation for its nonreturn on the due date.

This attempt at charity led to an ingenious evasion. The grace period, accepted with high good humor in the market place, became a mere sham. The lenders merely fixed a due date so close that borrowers could not hope to repay by then, following which huge penalties were added. The evasion and the practice survive to this day, and the courts commonly enforce, after default, a rate of charge in excess of that permitted by general usury laws. It persists in “revolving” or “flexible” charge accounts, in which no charge is made if a bill is paid within ten days or so, after which interest (called a “service charge”) of 18 per cent is added.

But the Church never approved of lending to the poor in order to profit from their poverty, nor of such things as “consumer’s loans”, formerly called “consumptive loans”, a rather more descriptive phrase. Indeed, to lend for any but productive purposes or to engage in commerce except as a service to the community was still immoral. In 1515 the Lateran Council pronounced: “This is the proper interpretation of usury, when gain is sought to be acquired from the use of a thing not in itself fruitful, without labor, expense or risk, on the part of the lender.” The element of risk loomed larger in importance, but the Church having made distinctions, it was not long before the law of England followed suit. Within thirty years, in 1545, came 37 Hen. 8, the first statute to legalize moderate usury.

Today it is commonly argued that the charging of interest on loans simply represents a fair and reasonable “rate of return” to moneylenders, to compensate them for their “risk” in making the loan.

This is self-serving bunkum.

As we have seen previously, there is no labor or “risk” involved in the modern process of “money” creation and lending. It is simply typed into existence, as a new digital bookkeeping entry. And even when the moneylenders take their money debt-creation schemes to stratospheric levels, blowing asset bubbles that lead to the total insolvency not just of millions of common people, but of their own institutions – (eg) the predatory mortgage lending practices in the USA preceding the GFC – the government conspires with the bankers to make them “whole” again. In the modern era, it is perfectly clear and beyond refutation that the lending of money by the banking system is risk-free … for the bankers.

In closing this post on usury, there is one more piece of research I’d like to share.

Biblically-literate readers will be familiar with the story of Abraham. As the man chosen by God to be “the father of many nations”, he is a central figure in the history of three powerful world faiths and their billions of adherents. Indeed, they are named after him – the “Abrahamic” faiths of Christianity, Islam, and Judaism.

In the Genesis 11-12 account of Abraham, we learn that he lived in the region of ancient Sumeria (or Babylonia), in a place called “Ur of the Chaldees”. God told him to get out of Ur, and to go to a land that He would show him.

The Promised Land.

A metaphor for Heaven.

In David Graeber’s masterful work Debt: The First 5,000 Years, we learn a wealth of fascinating, myth-busting information on the true anthropological history of money, exchange, barter, and debt throughout recorded history. It is a “must read” book.

Many of us would be aware that the earliest written records of humankind are the clay tablet (cuneiform) writings from ancient Sumeria. The concept of a debt jubilee now being revived by Professor Steve Keen has its earliest origins in Sumeria/Babylonia, where actual “money” (eg, coins) was very little used; instead, the economy functioned almost entirely on a system of debts and credits, which (like today) were nothing more than bookkeeping entries, written originally on clay balls, later, on clay slates. The phrase “a clean slate”, meaning to have a fresh start or new beginning, has its origins here. New Year’s Eve celebrations also have their origins here – it was not uncommon practice for Sumerian kings to declare all debts annulled, to destroy all the records of debt and so begin with “a clean slate” in the new year; a cause for joyous celebration if ever there was one!

CunEnv

In chapter 7 of Graeber’s book, we also discover the meaning of the word “Ur,” from an early Sumerian dictionary:

ur (HAR): n, liver; spleen; heart; soul; bulk; main body; foundation; loan; obligation; interest; surplus; profit; interest-bearing debt; repayment; slavewoman.

I think there may well be a significance to the story of Abraham and his journey out of Ur to the Land of Promise, that is both far deeper, and far more practical, than most give it credit for.

Will You Help Revolutionise Economics?

10 Feb

MinskyT-ShirtGraphic02

Back in April 2010, I joined with and supported Professor Steve Keen on his week-long Keenwalk to Kosciuszko.  For readers who don’t know, Steve is one of just 13 economists worldwide who foresaw and forewarned of the GFC.  Indeed, Steve won the 2010 Revere Award as voted by his peers, for being the economist who first warned of the impending crisis and (more importantly) the one who most cogently explained the reasons why.

For some time now, Steve has been working to develop a new computer program for modelling economics.  It is called “Minsky”, in honour of the economist Hyman Minsky. Yes, that’s him, in the cartoon above.  He developed the Financial Instability Hypothesis, which essentially recognised that lengthy periods of economic stability are actually a cause of subsequent instability and crisis.  It was Minsky who famously coined the phrase “Stability is destabilising”.

Steve’s “Minsky” computer program is revolutionary.

How so?

Well – believe it or not – it is the first economic modelling program that actually includes the role of banks, money, and debt.

Seriously.

Mainstream economists – including all those overpaid “experts” in the world’s treasury departments and central banks – failed to see the crisis coming.

But you already know that.  What you may not know is the reason why.  And that reason is simply this.

The mainstream economic theories (thus, models) they all believe in … ignore the role of banks, money, and debt.

You really can’t make this $h!t up.

Steve wants to change all that.  He wants to give the world the tools needed to properly model the real world economy.  Not an imaginary one.  Because in the real world, banks money and debt all matter. A lot.

To make this happen – to revolutionise economics – well, sad to say, it requires money.  Money to hire not just one or two part-timers, but a team of full-time computer programmers.

So, to raise money for this project, Steve has launched a campaign on the well known fundraising website called Kickstarter.

Please visit the campaign page here -

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/2123355930/minsky-reforming-economics-with-visual-monetary-mo

I want to encourage you to take 2 minutes to watch Steve’s introductory video.  If nothing else, it will entertain and educate you. And if you really want to be educated – in (mostly) no nonsense, layman’s language – take the time to read what Steve has to say on his Kickstarter campaign page.

Then, if you feel that this is a worthy project … I certainly do! … then please, make a pledge.

As little as $2.  Because every dollar helps.

And please share the links to Steve’s Kickstarter campaign on your own blog, Facebook page, Twitter, and other social networks.

Your simply spreading the word will be a great help, and a wonderful support.

Thank you.

Lots.

P.S.

The Economist recently had a feature on “Economics after the Crisis” called “New Model Army” which featured Minsky as an example of what the future of economics could be:

In Australia Steve Keen, an economist, and Russell Standish, a computational scientist, are developing a software package that would allow anyone to create and play with models of the economy that incorporate some of these new ideas. Called “Minsky”—after Hyman Minsky, an American economist celebrated for his work on boom-and-bust financial cycles—it places the banking system at the centre of the economy. (The Economist, January 19th 2013, p. 68)

The World’s Most Immoral Institution Tells You How

1 Apr

To understand why The Banking System is The World’s Most Immoral Institution, you need only to understand how it actually works.

Not how it works in the lofty, rarefied atmosphere of incomprehensible acronyms like ARM and RMBS and CFD and CDO and QE and LTRO.

Just the basics of banking.

The works that you and I deal with every day, at our local bank.

Fortunately, The Banking System has grown so proud of its near God-like power, it is happy to tell us how the basics really work.

From Modern Money Mechanics – A Workbook on Bank Reserves and Deposit Expansion, a complete booklet originally produced and distributed free by the Public Information Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, now out-of-print (emphasis added):

Who Creates Money?

Changes in the quantity of money may originate with actions of the Federal Reserve System (the central bank), depository institutions (principally commercial banks), or the public. The major control, however, rests with the central bank.

The actual process of money creation takes place primarily in banks. As noted earlier, checkable liabilities of banks are money. These liabilities are customers’ accounts. They increase when customers deposit currency and checks and when the proceeds of loans made by the banks are credited to borrowers’ accounts.

In the absence of legal reserve requirements, banks can build up deposits by increasing loans and investments so long as they keep enough currency on hand to redeem whatever amounts the holders of deposits want to convert into currency. This unique attribute of the banking business was discovered many centuries ago.

NB: This is why governments the world over are so obsessed with maintaining public “con-fidence” in the banking system. It is why they so fear any hint of a “run on the banks”. As we have seen previously ( “Think You’ve Got Cash In The Bank? Think Again” ), the Australian banking system only has around $183.50 in stored ‘reserve’ cash for every employed person in the country.  According to Australia’s central bank, the RBA, there is only $53.2 billion in actual cash notes in existence (or $4,655 per employed person) … even though Australian households and non-financial businesses believe that they have a combined $986 billion in total Deposits. If 1 in every 19 Aussies insisted on withdrawing their bank “Deposits” at the same time … all the cash would be gone. To add injury to insult, The Banking System is “earning” (?!) interest (thus, profits) from a grand total $1.95 Trillion in “loans” created out of thin air, and “lent” to Australian households and businesses.  Interest on “money” that does not exist … except as a series of electronic digits that a banking clerk typed into a computer.

It started with goldsmiths. As early bankers, they initially provided safekeeping services, making a profit from vault storage fees for gold and coins deposited with them. People would redeem their “deposit receipts” whenever they needed gold or coins to purchase something, and physically take the gold or coins to the seller who, in turn, would deposit them for safekeeping, often with the same banker. Everyone soon found that it was a lot easier simply to use the deposit receipts directly as a means of payment. These receipts, which became known as notes, were acceptable as money since whoever held them could go to the banker and exchange them for metallic money.

Then, bankers discovered that they could make loans merely by giving their promises to pay, or bank notes, to borrowers. In this way, banks began to create money. More notes could be issued than the gold and coin on hand because only a portion of the notes outstanding would be presented for payment at any one time. Enough metallic money had to be kept on hand, of course, to redeem whatever volume of notes was presented for payment.

Transaction deposits are the modern counterpart of bank notes. It was a small step from printing notes to making book entries crediting deposits of borrowers, which the borrowers in turn could “spend” by writing checks, thereby “printing” their own money.

Consider what this really means.

A bank creates “money”, authorised by your signature on a loan document.

Your signature is your legally-binding agreement, to become the bank’s debt slave.

With a few taps on the keyboard and clicks of a mouse, the “loan” that you must pay back, with interest, is created right out of thin air.

An electronic book-keeping entry is made under your name, as a new bank “Deposit”.

And another electronic book-keeping entry is made under the bank’s name, as an “Asset”.

Your legally-binding agreement to pay back the “loan” … with interest … is the bank’s “Asset”.

Every person, every business, every nation with a debt to a banking institution, is in plain truth a slave to their own wilful ignorance.

Working and slaving away, day after day, to pay back with interest something that came from nothing.

While the “Big Club” of elite bankers stride the earth like princes, on the back of everyone else’s daily toil and trouble.

Producing no thing.

Gaining every thing.

The Banking System.

It is the World’s Most Immoral Institution.

It is also the World’s Most Unnecessary Institution.

Here is my solution, for how we should do it.

Some of you, we all know, are poor, find it hard to live, are sometimes, as it were, gasping for breath. I have no doubt that some of you who read this book are unable to pay for all the dinners which you have actually eaten, or for the coats and shoes which are fast wearing or are already worn out, and have come to this page to spend borrowed or stolen time, robbing your creditors of an hour. It is very evident what mean and sneaking lives many of you live, for my sight has been whetted by experience; always on the limits, trying to get into business and trying to get out of debt, a very ancient slough, called by the Latins aes alienum, another’s brass, for some of their coins were made of brass; still living, and dying, and buried by this other’s brass; always promising to pay, tomorrow, and dying today, insolvent; seeking to curry favor, to get custom, by how many modes, only not state-prison offences; lying, flattering, voting, contracting yourselves into a nutshell of civility or dilating into an atmosphere of thin and vaporous generosity, that you may persuade your neighbor to let you make his shoes, or his hat, or his coat, or his carriage, or import his groceries for him; making yourselves sick, that you may lay up something against a sick day, something to be tucked away in an old chest, or in a stocking behind the plastering, or, more safely, in the brick banks; no matter where, no matter how much or how little.

I sometimes wonder that we can be so frivolous, I may almost say, as to attend to the gross but somewhat foreign form of servitude called Negro Slavery, there are so many keen and subtle masters that enslave both North and South. It is hard to have a Southern overseer; it is worse to have a Northern one; but worst of all when you are the slave-driver of yourself.

- Henry David Thoreau, Walden; or, a Life in the Woods, 1854

Keenomics. It’s A Movement. You Should Join It.

21 Sep

Behold, dear reader!

Behold! the only economist in the nation – and indeed, one of only a dozen economists on the planet – to have predicted the GFC (that has never gone away).

Behold! the winner of Real-World Economics Review‘s “Revere Award” for the economist who first and most cogently warned of the global collapse.

Australia’s own Associate Professor Steve Keen.

Author of “Debunking Economics” (2nd edition release in London in October 2011).

A contrarian economic genius … who has fewer good words for the economics ‘profession’ than even your humble blogger!

And a great bloke.

Far too great a bloke to insult him by calling him an “economist”, in fact.

Here’s Steve being interviewed on Sky Business News a couple of days ago.

Very well worth your while to listen.

Carefully.

Readers may be interested to learn that your humble blogger has recently become involved with Dr Keen’s new Center for Economic Stability … his new organisation with the goal of developing a whole new ‘brand’ of economics.

One based on something really important, that modern ivory-towered economists understand very little about.

Reality.

If you’ve never come across Steve’s work before, then you can begin to catch up by visiting his world famous blog, Steve Keen’s DebtWatch.

More exciting news to follow regarding the Center for Economic Stability in the near future.

It’s a movement. You should join it.

The Pricing Carbon Choir – Why Should *Any* Sane Person Trust Economists After The GFC?

2 Jul

There’s a little faux furore doing the rounds in the last 24 hours.

Allegedly, that awful Tony Abbott doesn’t trust economists.

In particular, he does not trust their judgement over their “popular” position on the proposed carbon “X”.

From The Australian:

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott defies economists on carbon tax

Tony Abbott today slapped down economists who were backing a price on carbon to deal with climate change, accusing the numbers men of getting it wrong.

The Opposition Leader urged economists vocally calling for a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme to examine their thinking.

Speaking at the The Australian-Melbourne Institute Growth Challenge conference in Melbourne, Mr Abbott said economists should not be taken in by Labor’s use of the term “market-based mechanisms’’.

“It may well be, as you say, that most Australian economists think that the carbon tax or emissions trading scheme is the way to go,’’ he said.

Maybe that’s a comment on the quality of our economists.’’

Indeed.

Consider.

Not one of these economists who are calling for a carbon “X”, saw the GFC coming.

Not one.

Australians lost billions from their retirement savings.

Our country was plunged, unprepared, into a massive Labor and greenie-Ken Henry-inspired monster debt-a-thon.

Why?

Because NOT ONE of these #JAFA’s saw the GFC coming.

Including the latest #JAFA economist to be given charge over the Australian economy – and your future – the new Treasury Secretary, former student of “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke, Martin Mini-me Parkinson.

Only one (1) Australian economist did see it coming.

Dr Steve Keen -

And only twelve other economists, worldwide, along with him.

Proof?

Here’s a paper referencing the thirteen international economists who all predicted and forewarned of the GFC for years in advance, and propounded cogent analyses as to why a GFC was coming. Including Australia’s own Dr Steve Keen, who won an award voted on by his international economic peers for having done so:

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not.

Note that well.

It was only those rare economists who shun the kind of modelling that is “ubiquitous in mainstream policy”, and instead use “accounting” models, that got it right.

In other words, it was only the few economists worldwide who think like accountants, who were able to see the GFC coming.

Is it any wonder then, that our much-ridiculed accountant in the Parliament, Senator Barnaby Joyce, is always the only one on the ball when it comes to correctly predicting the risks of what is coming?

REMEMBER back in 2009 when Barnaby Joyce pondered aloud the possibility of the US defaulting on its debt?

Just to recap in the concisest way, things went badly for Joyce. We found ourselves pondering this yesterday as we listened to the dulcet tones of the ABC’s Eleanor Hall on The World Today: “. . . the [US] Treasury has warned that Congress has only until August 2 to come up with a compromise to lift the $US14 trillion debt ceiling or risk a default and a default would have drastic consequences, not just for the US but for the global economy”.

Is the time approaching where Joyce must be acknowledged as a clear-eyed prophet?

Strewth found him in a reflective mood.

“Maybe they will retract their pillaging of me and hand back the shadow finance portfolio as the sun is blotted out with the return of the migrating pigs,” Joyce mused.

“Alas, Cassandras are rarely enjoyable company in any party. It was hardly the greatest feat of the prefrontal cortex amygdala [utilised for intuition, he explains] to foresee that one, but politically it had to wait for the economic karaoke to bravely sing all together prompted by the big bouncing cheque.”

Amen.

But wait, dear reader.

There’s another outstanding reason why no sane person should trust the “leading” “mainstream” economists’ opinions about “pricing carbon”.

The majority of these economists you are hearing from on the subject, have a massive conflict-of-interest.

They are owned.

By banks.

Take a look at this little online stoush that I had right here on barnabyisright.com, with “leading” #JAFA economist Saul Eslake.

He objected to my portrayal of his and his fellow dozen economists’ Open Letter in support of “pricing carbon”, as being a Banksters’ Glee Club.

Then under return fire, he foolishly conceded that, as far as he knows, 77% of those economists (including himself) are current and/or former employees of banks.

Mr Eslake himself being former chief economist of the ANZ Bank, and now employed by BHP Billiton (who stand to make a killing from “pricing carbon” – really!), and the Australian Government via the “independent” Grattan Institute.

Quelle surprise!

By Saul’s Own Words They Stand Condemned.

The sector of the economy that stands to benefit the most from “pricing carbon”, is the financial sector.

Banks.

And banksters.

And their many minions.

Including Malcolm Turnbull, whose balls are owned by international carbon-trading-pushers Goldman Sachs, after their “confidential settlement” to keep him out of court in the half a billion dollar lawsuit over the HIH collapse, in which Mr Turnbull was a named defendant.

Tony Abbott – who has an economics degree himself – is actually demonstrating both brains and balls, by defying the “mainstream wisdom” of economists over the carbon “X”.

No sane person should trust economists at all after the GFC.

And especially, no sane person should ever trust those “leading” mainstream economists who are now out there publicly singing for their supper, on behalf of the bankstering industry.

The “Pricing Carbon” Choir.

Blithering Idiots, and Liars all.

Economist Who Predicted The GFC Warns Of “Perfect Storm”

15 Jun

From Bloomberg:

A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”

Nouriel Roubini is the New York University professor who came to fame as one of the dozen or so economists – including Australia’s own Dr Steve Keen – who predicted the GFC.

Mind you, he was running a little late. Dr Keen began publicly warning of a GFC in December 2005.  Roubini issued his warnings from mid-late 2006.

Now he’s running a little late again, with this warning of a “perfect storm”.

Barnaby Joyce began warning of the risk of “economic Armageddon” nearly 18 months ago. And for exactly the same reasons – rising levels of public and private debt in the USA, and around the world.

It’s worth taking a minute or two to clearly recall just what Barnaby had to say.

From the Brisbane Times, October 23, 2009 (emphasis added):

The Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce is openly canvassing an economic upheaval that would dwarf the current global financial crisis, triggered by the US defaulting on its sovereign debt within the next few years.

In unusually pessimistic comments for a senior political figure, Senator Joyce said the US Government was running such large deficits and building up so much debt that it was in a similar position to Iceland or Germany before World War II.

In a Senate estimates hearing on Wednesday night, he asked Treasury secretary Ken Henry what would be the implications of an American debt default for the Australian economy.

Dr Henry warned that canvassing extreme scenarios could alarm the community.

”I don’t mind discussing hypotheticals in general … [but] one has to be careful not to discuss publicly hypotheticals that are that extreme,” Dr Henry said.

”I don’t, myself, consider that outcome to be a high probability outcome, certainly not one that I would want to say much about in a public forum.”

But Senator Joyce insisted yesterday that the dangers to the global economy from the run-up in US private and public sector debt were real and should be debated.

”It is the elephant in the room,” Senator Joyce said. ”This is a huge risk that Australia faces. What is the game plan, what happens if it comes unstuck?

And from the Sydney Morning Herald, December 11, 2009 (emphasis added):

The Opposition finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the United States government could default on its debt, triggering an ”economic Armageddon” which will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance.

Senator Joyce told the Herald yesterday he did not mean to alarm the public but there needed to be a debate about Australia’s ”contingency plan” for a sovereign debt default by the US or even by a local state government.

”A default by the US means complete economic collapse around the world and the question we have got to ask ourselves is where are we in that,” Senator Joyce said.

His warning came as the Rudd Government ramped up its attack on Senator Joyce as an economic extremist…

Senator Joyce said the chances of a US debt default were distant but real and politicians were not doing the electorate a favour by refusing to acknowledge the risk.

Senator Joyce said that if the US recovered, global funds would flow back into North America. ”There will be only one way Australia will be able to keep funds here and that is by putting up interest rates, which will therefore bring real costs back to households,” he said.

”That is the first scenario, which is extremely bad for Australia. The worse scenario is where the US doesn’t repay its debt – the $2 trillion in debt it owes to the Chinese, the $1 trillion in debt it has to the Japanese and the $US1 trillion in debt to others – and then we are really nailed.

”The outcome is a shift away from the US dollar as the international trading currency and a shift to the Chinese yuan, and China becomes an immensely powerful player overnight.

”It’s the real financial crisis, and the real financial crisis will mean this preamble we have just had pales into insignificance.”

Asked what sort of contingency plan he would advocate, Senator Joyce said it was like trying to prepare for a tidal wave but the local economy should have more self-reliance.

”Things you look for in that economic Armageddon are the capacity to feed ourselves, the capacity to provide the fundamentals in medicines and basic fundamental requirements for our nation.”

Barnaby was right.

And noone took any notice.  18 months later, Australia has no contingency plan.  Just a dramatically weakened government financial position.

This blog was created for the express purpose of sourcing and sharing information from around the world, in support of Barnaby’s prophetic warning.

If you browse the pages here, especially over the past month or so, you will find many news articles referencing the US debt default crisis.

Watch and listen to this interview just 8 days ago, where respected US congressman and 2012 Presidential Candidate Ron Paul, the Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy, openly confirmed that the US is defaulting on its debts.

The big risk event that Barnaby predicted was “distant but real” in late 2009 … is happening right now.

Barnaby was mocked and ridiculed out of his new job as Opposition Finance spokesman, for daring to speak out. For daring to talk publicly about risks contrary to the “received wisdom” of the “experts”.

Who were those “experts”?

Let’s begin a Name ‘n Shame list of all the pompous, know-it-all cretins who now owe Barnaby a wimpering, grovelling apology.

Naturally, we’re talking about the likes of former Treasury secretary (and now unconstitutionally-appointed personal adviser to Gillard) Ken “The GFC is over” Henry.

RBA Governor Glenn “I don’t know anyone who predicted the GFC” Stevens.

Treasurer Wayne “Half a million new jobs” Swan.

And former Finance Minister Lindsay “dark arts” Tanner.

And, pretty much the entire Canberra press gallery.

They were all wrong. Totally, utterly, catastrophically wrong.

Time is proving our country accountant Senator from Queensland to be a veritable modern day prophet.

With more wisdom, commonsense, foresight, and courage, than the entire Labor Party, Treasury department, RBA Board of governors, and Canberra press pack of financial “journalists” combined.

So let us all pay close heed to his most recent warning – that the government plans to steal our super to pay down debt.

Barnaby is right.

China Lending Tumbles, Signals Slowing Economy

14 Jun

From Bloomberg:

China’s lending tumbled in May and money supply grew at the slowest pace since 2008, adding to signs that the world’s second-biggest economy is cooling.

“This provides another data point highlighting the growth risk,” said Tao Dong, a Hong Kong-based economist for Credit Suisse Group AG. “I think the economy is heading to a soft landing in the second half of 2011, but the risk of a hard landing seems to be on the rise,” Tao said, adding that small companies are short of credit.

A moderating expansion in the Chinese economy is adding to concerns that global growth is faltering.

How’s that promised single year of budget “surplus” in 2013 looking, Wayne?

Final Proof That RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Is Either A Liar, Or A Blithering Idiot

13 Jun

Illustration - John Shakespeare

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has been criticised at this blog previously:

Stevens’ Nonchalance ‘Stunning’

Stevens: ‘Risk Of Serious Contraction’ Passed

Stevens’ Australia’s Most Useless?

Now, conclusive proof that our Guv’na … who earns $1.05 million per annum, including a $234,000 pay rise at the peak of the GFC … is an ignorant, incompetent, ivory-towered #JAFA who should be sacked immediately, if not sooner.

From the RBA’s own website, behold! Stevens’ official speech to the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, Sydney, 9 December 2008.  That’s right around the time that you, dear reader, were cr@pping yourself about the imploding global sharemarket … and he was enjoying a $234,000 pay rise.

Let’s see what he had to say about the Global Financial Crisis, and the events leading to it (emphasis added):

Many people have said to me recently that the times are ‘interesting’. My response has been that they are, perhaps, a little too interesting. I need not remind this audience of the international financial turmoil through which we have lived over the past almost year and a half, nor of the intensity of the events since mid September this year, in particular.

I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. This should give us cause to reflect on how hard a job it is to make genuinely useful forecasts. What we have seen is truly a ‘tail’ outcome – the kind of outcome that the routine forecasting process never predicts.

Mr Stevens, you are either a liar.

Or, you are a blithering idiot.

Here’s a paper referencing more than a dozen international economists who all predicted and forewarned of the GFC for years in advance, and propounded cogent analyses as to why a GFC was coming. One of them, Australia’s own Dr Steve Keen, won an award voted on by his international economic peers for having done so:

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not.

[* So is it any wonder then, that our much-ridiculed accountant in the Parliament, Senator Barnaby Joyce, is always the only one on the ball when it comes to correctly predicting the risks of what is coming?]

Indeed, here’s Dr Keen on our national broadcaster’s premier political program, The 7:30 Report, way back in November 2007 – 10 months before the Lehman Bro’s collapse kicked off the GFC main event – talking about the RBA’s latest interest rate increase, and warning of the dangers of high household debt levels:

So right there is one prominent Australian economist, who was loudly and very publicly forewarning of a coming GFC. For 3 years prior!

Indeed, lots of other, ordinary people like me saw the GFC coming too, and so were able to protect themselves from the financial devastation.

Devastation that you, Mr Stevens, somehow could not see coming.

You say, “I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events”.

Well mate, our taxes say it’s your #&^%! $1.05 million job to know!

Millions of good, decent, trusting Aussies lost hundreds of billions from their retirement savings, thanks to a GFC that jumped-up, mainstream-theory-blinkered imbeciles like you couldn’t see coming.  When so many others – little people, with simple commonsense – did.

You are a national disgrace. And your Million Dollar Man salary, a despicable waste of taxpayers money.

Sack Glenn Stevens now.

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