China’s Vice Premier “Certain” Of Long-Term Global Recession

24 Nov

Really looking forward to seeing Waynes’ massaged MYEFO now.

From Business Spectator:

China triggers the recession alarm

Last night’s fall in global share and commodity markets plus the slump in the Australian dollar will affect not just Australian superannuation balances and consumer confidence, but will extend deep into sectors of the Australian dwelling market. If you are about to buy or sell an apartment or house, you need to be aware of the forces that have been unleashed.

The most dramatic contributor to last night’s drop, from an Australian point of view, was not the growing frustration with Europe; it was not the global banking crisis; and it was not the fact that the US must introduce mandatory spending cuts. All of those events were very important, but what spooked our part of the world was the statement by Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan that a long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems.

And from CNN Money:

European stocks were getting slammed Monday, after Moody’s Investors Service issued a dire warning on French bonds, and Asian markets were dampened by pessimistic remarks made by a high-ranking Chinese official.

“China’s Vice Premier Wang Qishan said that the current economic situation is extremely serious and is certain that a global recession triggered by the international crisis will last a long time,” wrote the Deutsche Bank analysts in a report to investors.

And the “hot money” (ie, speculator-driven) that had been keeping the AUD artificially strong … until late 2008 … and, until recent weeks … is not just fleeing Australia.

It’s fleeing China too.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Hot Money’s Hurried Exit From China

More signs of bearish sentiment on China, this time from cross border capital flows.

Data released Monday showed China’s banks were net sellers of foreign currency in October (in Chinese). That’s unusual because China’s trade surplus, combined with inflows of direct investment, mean the mainland’s banks are almost always net buyers of foreign currency.

Indeed, the numbers normally suggest that in addition to the trade surplus, banks are buying up speculative capital flowing into the economy. Tuesday’s numbers suggest that now speculative capital might be exiting China. That makes sense given diminished expectations of yuan appreciation, falling property prices and a deepening crisis in Europe pushing investors away from risky positions.

A comparison with past occasions when hot money has flowed out of China provides little reassurance. Netting out the trade surplus from banks’ FX purchases gives a rough approximation of the scale and direction of capital flows. The last time it turned negative was May 2010, when fears of a double dip downturn were on the rise. The time before: the eve of the financial crisis in August 2008.

Come on now Wayne.

Out with the MYEFO already.

Surely all this is nothing for the World’s Greatest Finance Minister to handle:

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2 Responses to “China’s Vice Premier “Certain” Of Long-Term Global Recession”

  1. Tomorrows Serf November 24, 2011 at 7:27 am #

    Ah yes.

    Methinks Wayne’s newly bestowed title as “the World’s Greatest Treasurer” could soon be amended to “The World’s Most Inept, Bumbling, Treacherous., Lying, Foolish, Incompetent, Half-Baked Excuse-for- a-Treasurer” shortly.. (smug little pr-ck)

    So much for his//their constant bleating about being in surplus by 2012. This mob would not know a surplus if it bit them on the backside.

  2. Twodogs November 24, 2011 at 9:55 am #

    Why don’t they back it up? Why aren’t they bombarding Swan with questions about how to solve the new financial crisis? As an economist, I’d have Wayne Swan right up there with Michael Klim, Andrew Johns and Warwick Capper!!

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