Say ‘Bye Bye Surplus’, Swanny

14 Mar

What happens when your business is massively reliant on one customer … and that customer stops needing as much of your product?

Ask Wayne Swan:

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Steel production not looking good. And total production growth gently sliding.

Why might that be?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

House prices topped out and rolling over. Floor space sold falling.

And fixed asset investments ground to a halt:

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Why is all this happening?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

The same old story, as seen throughout the Western world, now in China too.

When the “credit” (ie, debt) needed to keep blowing up a bubble slows and falls, the end is nigh.

And without all that debt-fuelled building activity to drive “GDP growth”?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Say “bye bye” to that surplus fantasy, Swanny.

Oh yes, no doubt you will loudly trumpet a forecast surplus in the May budget.

But I for one am willing to bet you that, come end June 2013, there is not a snowflake’s chance in hell of your delivering one.

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2 Responses to “Say ‘Bye Bye Surplus’, Swanny”

  1. The Old and Unimproved Dave March 14, 2012 at 4:51 am #

    Listening to Swan keep telling us how debt will eventually give way to a surplus under his stewardship is a bit like listening to Maureen McGovern sing The Poseidon Adventure’s “There’s Got To Be A Morning After”…..

  2. Richo March 14, 2012 at 11:42 am #

    I would even have doubts he could even forecast a surplus with those figures. It would be like forecasting a win on the roulette wheel, spending the dough accordingly, all while the wheel is still spinning.

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