Why Swan’s Appeal To IMF Forecasts Is An Argumentum Ad Verecundiam

19 Apr

Argumentum ad verecundiam.

Appeal to authority.

A logical fallacy.

One widely popularised by warmageddonists, who have never conscientiously considered the simple truth spoken by Nobel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman:

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”

In recent days, Wayne Swan has once again been loudly touting the latest IMF forecasts. He wants you to believe that what the IMF says, is somehow proof that the Australian economy under his management is doing great, and will do even better in 2012-13.

But there is a very interesting, little known fact about the way in which IMF forecasts are put together. One that every citizen should be aware of.

Here is the Unconventional Economist Leith van Onselen, who has previously worked for the Australian and Victorian Treasury departments:

Click to enlarge

So, pointing to an IMF forecast is really nothing more than a deceitful  argumentum ad verecundiam put forward by dishonest politicians, who negotiate with the “authority” they appeal to concerning what that authority’s report/forecast will actually say!

Indeed, one only need read the latest IMF report to see that its forecasts for Australian growth are really nothing more than parroting of the government’s own wildly optimistic budget forecasts:

Click to enlarge

Remember this little piece of information.

Tuck it away near the front of your mind.

Ready and waiting for the next time you hear Wayne … or any politician … or journalist … appealing to a “report” by some Higher Authority like the IMF, or the World Bank, or the UN.

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One Response to “Why Swan’s Appeal To IMF Forecasts Is An Argumentum Ad Verecundiam”

  1. JMD April 19, 2012 at 11:36 am #

    Haven’t read it, since I can’t be bothered logging in but this might be of interest to you. Something about “PM pressures RBA to cut rates”.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gillard-defends-surplus-goal-TG927?OpenDocument&src=hp8

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