Warning Of Global Systemic Crisis 2.0 In Second Half 2013

20 Jul

warning-sign

There are many who take careful notice of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB). I too, have often found it interesting, and insightful.

The latest GEAB is certainly worth reading, and heeding. But not for the obvious, headline reason.

It may be flagging in advance a “reform” agenda, to be triggered as a response to a new, bigger crisis. A reform that some, including myself, have long expected (excerpt-only below):

A situation which is now out of control

The illusions which have still blinded the last remaining optimists are in the process of dissipating. In previous GEAB issues we have already laid out the world economy’s grim picture. Since then the situation has got worse. The Chinese economy confirms its slowdown (1) as well as Australia (2), emerging countries’ currencies are disconnecting (3), bond interest rates are rising, UK salaries are continuing to fall (4), riots are affecting Turkey and even peaceful Sweden (5), the Eurozone is still in recession (6), the news filtering out of the United States is no longer cheerful (7)…

Nervousness is now clearly palpable on all financial markets where the question is no longer knowing when the next record will be but succeeding in getting out soon enough before the stampede. The Nikkei has fallen more than 20% in three weeks during which there have been three sessions with losses exceeding 5%. So, the contagion has now reached the “standard” indices such as the stock exchanges, interest rates, and currency exchange rates… the last bastions still controlled by the central banks and, therefore, totally distorted as our team has repeatedly explained.

In Japan this situation is the result of the over-the-top sized quantitative easing programme undertaken by the central bank. The Yen’s fall has brought about strong inflation in the price of imported goods (particularly oil). The huge swings in the Japanese stock exchange and currency is destabilising the whole of global finance. But the implementation of the Bank of Japan’s programme is so new that its effects are still much less pronounced than those of the Fed’s quantitative easing. It’s primarily the Fed which is responsible for all the current bubbles: real estate in the United States (8), stock exchange record highs, bubbles in and destabilisation of emerging countries (9), etc.

It’s also thanks to it, or rather because of it, that the virtual economy has got going again with even greater intensity and that the necessary balancing hasn’t taken place. The same methods are producing the same effects (10), an increased virtualisation of the economy is leading us to a second crisis in five years, for which the United States is once again responsible. The central banks can’t hold the global economy together indefinitely; at the moment they are losing control.

A second US crisis

If the months of April-May, with a great deal of media hype, seem to agree with the US-UK-Japanese method of monetary easing (to put it mildly) against the Euroland method of reasoned austerity, for several weeks now the champions of all-finance have had a little more difficulty in claiming victory. The IMF, terrified by the global impact of the economic slowdown in Europe, doesn’t know what else to come up with to force Europeans to continue spending and make deficits explode again: even empty boutique World must continue to give the impression that it’s still in business, and Europe isn’t playing the game.

But the toxic effects of central bank operations in Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom now demolish the argument (or rather propaganda) touting the success of the “other method”, supposed to allow recovery in Japan, the US and the United Kingdom (incidentally, the latter has never even been mentioned).

The currently developing second crisis could have been avoided if the world had taken note that the United States, structurally incapable of reforming itself, was unable to implement other methods than those which had led to the 2008 crisis. Like the irresponsible “too big to fail” banks, the “systemically” irresponsible countries should have been placed under supervision from 2009 as suggested from the GEAB n° 28 (October 2008). Unfortunately the institutions of global governance have proved to be completely ineffective and powerless in managing the crisis. Only regional good sense has been able to put it in place; the international arena producing nothing, everyone began to settle their problems in their part of the world.

The other crucial reform advocated (11) since 2009 by the LEAP/E2020 team focused on taking a completely new look at the international monetary system. In 40 years of US trade imbalances and the volatility of its currency, the dollar as the pillar of the international monetary system has been the carrier of all the United States’ colds to the rest of the world, and this destabilising pillar is now at the heart of the global problem because the United States is no longer suffering from a cold but bubonic plague.

Absent having reformed the international monetary system in 2009, a second crisis is coming. With it comes a new window of opportunity to reform the international monetary system at the G20 in September (12) and one almost hopes that the shock happens by then to force an agreement on this subject, otherwise the summit risks taking place too soon to gain everyone’s support.

——–
Notes:

(1) Source: The New York Times, 08/06/2013.

(2) Source: The Sydney Morning Herald, 05/06/2013. Read also Mish’s Global Economic, 10/06/2013.

(3) Source: CNBC, 12/06/2013.

(4) Source: The Guardian, 12/06/2013.

(5) Read Sweden’s riots, a blazing surprise, The Economist, 01/06/2013.

(6) Source: BBC News, 06/06/2013.

(7) Read Economic dominos falling one by one, MarketWatch, 12/06/2013.

(8) A bubble in current market conditions; normally this would be considered a thrill. Market Oracle, 10/06/2013.

(9) On the consequences of worldwide QE in India: Reuters, 13/06/2013.

(10) The return of financial products at the origin of the 2008 crisis is not insignificant. Source : Le Monde, 11/06/2013.

(11) Cf. GEAB n°29, November 2008.

(12) Source: Ria Novosti, 14/06/2013.

Hmmmmm.

September 2013.

That would be convenient timing.

Since we have now seen the irrefutable evidence that, as agreed at Seoul in 2010, the G20 nations — in particular, the EU, UK, USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — are all now well advanced in their preparations to implement a Cyprus-style “bail-in” of banks.

See Timeline For “Bail-In” Of G20 Banking System.

I’ve said it before, and will again.

Any “new” monetary system that is suggested by the usual suspects — the internationalist IMF, World Bank, FSB, etc, which are all little more than elitist bankster covens — is NOT the new monetary system we should want.

Because it would only ever be, as now, their system. Of their design. For their benefit.

What the world needs is something very different to anything that the bankers would ever promote –

Imagine A World With No Banks

“Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”

– Napoleon, 1815

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17 Responses to “Warning Of Global Systemic Crisis 2.0 In Second Half 2013”

  1. mick July 20, 2013 at 8:36 pm #

    A bit of perspective:

    1. The exchange rate for the yen was around AU$1/80 yen a few years ago. On Friday, after having been in the money printing game for half a year the exchange rate was AU$1/92 yen. Hardly a big change. The wish was to get the Japanese economy back on track by making Japan more competitive. How it ends up is anybody’s business.

    2. The S&P 500 has risen by 50% in the past 2 years. This has been driven by money printing and the dogma doing the traps is that the US economy is powering along. It is likely though that the fat lady is yet to sing.

    There are two things playing out which I consider to be reasons to hold serious concerns though:

    1. the Bail-in arrangements being set up in a number of first world nations.
    2. the manipulation of the gold price with the metal being forced down whilst at the same time not one ounce is permitted to be exported from the world’s largest producer (China) and also the entire production of gold from the rest of the world is being bought up by China. On the streets PHYSICAL GOLD is going like hot cakes with people lined up to exchange for their fiat money.

    I cannot but believe that there is a strategy being put into place and that average people are going to be fleece….as usual in the financial markets. How it all ends up nobody knows because the masters of the universe will not divulge their plans. But I believe that the signs are telling the tale.

  2. Tomorrows Serf July 21, 2013 at 12:10 am #

    Mick, I couldn’t agree more with you.

    If we allow “the Powers that Be” to save us with a new fiat form of Bankster controlled currency, then we will only be playing into their hands again.

    End the Fed (and by extension, the BIS and all Rothschild controlled Central Banks), end Fractional reserve banking, restore Glass-Steagall, and maybe hang a few of the worst Banksters and their minions as an example. (Well maybe not hang them, but EXPOSE them and confiscate their ill-gotten gains, and quarantine them.) Yes, I am talking a General Amnesty, as much as this might stick in the craw, otherwise we’ll NEVER be rid of these slick talking, highly intelligent, but insanely EVIL vermin.

    Restore national banking and currency supply(at NO INTEREST to the population) Life will be slower, growth will be truly sustainable, we will probably have less “stuff” but true quality of life will probably improve.

    Now, in the meantime, best batten down the hatches, ’cause it looks like all hell is about to break loose. Protect yourselves as best you can. Suggest devolving oneself of as much “paper” denominated assets as possible. I like food, gold, silver and productive farmland.

    Good luck everyone and hope to see you safely on the “other side”.

    • JMD July 21, 2013 at 2:28 pm #

      “Restore national banking and currency supply(at NO INTEREST to the population) Life will be slower, growth will be truly sustainable”

      No, it’ll cause an inflationary nightmare far sooner than the present system will. Just who do you propose regulates the issuance of this currency, the government?

      • The Blissful Ignoramus July 22, 2013 at 7:49 am #

        The argument over who should regulate currency supply — private or public entities — is long, complex, and largely subjective. At present (and for a long time now), private banks essentially determine the supply, via fractional reserve lending. This has allowed them to increase their power and control, to the extent that now they essentially are the government.

        Given a choice between the present system, and (elected) government control, I’d vote for the latter as the lesser of two evils, only for the reason that citizens have zero control over the private bankstering system, whereas via the ballot box, they have some (admittedly minimal) control over poor governmental management.

        However, that is still far from good enough, for all the obvious reasons. I maintain that my own idea for maximally decentralised currency issuance — by all individuals, equally — is the best and only realistic long term solution.

        See Anthony Migchel’s latest at Real Currencies – The Public vs Private Dialectic, or, Money as part of the Commons … it is spot on, IMO.

        • mick July 22, 2013 at 10:38 am #

          “Interest-free Public Banks would be much better”.

          Sounds like idealism. Would anybody deposit savings into banks which paid no interest? I wouldn’t. So how do you run a system where money does not beget money? Sounds a bit like Communism…which does not work.

          • The Blissful Ignoramus July 22, 2013 at 12:31 pm #

            Mick, I’ve told you this at least twice before, and given you links to go study. It seems you have not bothered to do so.

            You (still) do not understand the fundamental difference between “money” (store of value), and “currency” (medium of exchange). Until you do, with respect, you are not equipped to participate in an informed and educated discussion of the topic. Because you will never grasp the reason why a so-called “price of money” (interest/usury) is a fraudulent concept, indoctrinated into people’s minds over many generations, by the banker class, via their influence/control over the so-called “science” of economics.

            The banker class have, over time, gradually given us a form of ‘money/currency’ that effectively combines the two separate concepts (medium of exchange, vs store-of-value) in one item. The offering and charging of interest/usury on currency — which has no “value” at all — is the action that places an artificial “value” on something that is actually without any value. This is THE key tool in the box of tricks of that class of predators who have slowly but surely enslaved the world through manipulation of currency volume and velocity, via the manipulation of interest rates, thus debt issuance, inflation (of currency), etc.

            What is needed is a pure currency — without value — that has no built-in incentive to encourage saving (which is what offering interest rates on deposits does; it creates an artificial incentive). Currency should NOT be saved. It should be merely exchanged for goods and services – that is its purpose (medium of exchange). Offering interest/usury deceives people into believing that worthless currency, has store-of-value. It is a trick.

            When people want to “save”, they should do so in real things, that actually have real value in and of themselves. Not paper, not electronic digits.

            • mick July 22, 2013 at 4:29 pm #

              Blissful:

              With all due respect I understand your position and what you are trying to say although there appear to be holes in your argument. Perhaps you are correct in saying that I have been brainwashed by my entire existence in the current system. Standing back and taking a look I see:

              1. INCENTIVE:

              My understanding of (failed) communism in Russia and China is that the state was the controller of EVERYTHING including the distribution of money (in whatever form) and wealth. It looks that communism did not work because there was no incentive to work hard, to innovate and to produce. For all intense purposes workers were effectively no different to council workers who have little productivity, work ethic or accountability and are happy to rort the system. So when a nation with no productivity trades with one that has high productivity there is an imbalance and this creates a distortion in favour of the nation which has incentive.

              2. STORES OF WEALTH

              I think that I am conversant with the difference between a ‘store of value’ and a ‘medium of exchange’. You rightly believe that fiat money has no value and on the face if it I cannot disagree. But then neither does gold or silver as these are lumps of metal. Both paper currency and gold only have “value” because we give them value. No other reason. The place where there is a divergence is that gold cannot be produced in the same way as paper money can although it can be found in increasing amounts with intensive mining. And then down the track science may well be able to (artificially) manufacture gold in the same way as it manufactures industrial diamonds. So what value will gold then have?
              So perhaps one of the very few ways of having a long term and genuine store of wealth is be food, water and food producing land, all of which are finite and subject to demand from a burgeoning population……….so why are we selling freehold agricultural land to the Chinese (and other) governments?

              3. CURRENCY

              Currency certainly is a medium of exchange and should ideally be no more. Whilst paper notes may possess no real and lasting value what they can be used for does. So effectively they have a defacto value and act a bit like a middleman between income and hard assets.

              You state that “Currency should NOT be saved”. So if I earn $2000 this week and only require $1000 to pay my bills then what happens to the rest if I am unable to “save” anything?

              * Does your model require people to spend everything they earn? Or are excess funds available to spend later?

              * And if I am unable to get a return (interest) then I’ll more than likely use my money to buy shares which will pay me a dividend (a defacto interest payment). If everybody did the same (many would) then there is no money to lend for business, housing or anything else unless governments print more, which they would have to. And then how do countries around the globe trade with each other? Who determines the rate of exchange? George Soros?

              Sorry if it is all more obvious to you than I but I cannot see exactly how this is going to work IN THE REAL WORLD. Whilst there may well be a better way to run society than a bank based method which we all hate I have seen no solution which looks like it is going to work on paper and it is all well and good to put forward an academic’s view of the world but any solution needs to pass the all important litmus test – that it can work.

              I look forward to some concrete answers with a lot more detail. As one elephant said to the next…..I’m all ears. Cheers.

              I am interested to see the ‘how’ Blissful.

            • The Blissful Ignoramus July 22, 2013 at 5:44 pm #

              Mick,

              Re

              1. Your understanding of how the currency system actually worked in the USSR is lacking. Suggest further research. Furthermore, you are (whether you realise it or not) confusing the issue and using a “Straw Man” argument here – “incentive to work” is not the point at issue. No one here (and certainly not I) is advocating a “communist” currency system. It appears that you still have not bothered to read my essay that actually explains my model — start with Imagine A World With No Banks for a brief summary overview, then, the full essay The People’s NWO: Every Man His Own Central Banker.

              2. “neither does gold or silver as these are lumps of metal” – no, both of these have many practical, useful (ie, valu-able) uses, other than as currency. Therefore, precious metals can rightly be considered a store-of-value.

              3. If you wish to “save”, then do so by exchanging your paper/digital currency for a real, valu-able asset. If you later require more currency, then sell one or more of your valu-able assets in exchange for some currency. It could not be simpler.

              The rest of your comment clearly evidences that you have (still) not read the essay explaining my suggested model. As such, it is a waste of my time to bother responding, and try to correct your misunderstandings.

              Mick, please, read carefully, slowly, thoroughly, and thoughtfully both of the blogs at the links I have just given you. The second one is LONG … I’m sorry, I know you have said you don’t like to read anything lengthy, but that is your problem (intellectual laziness).

              If you do not do as I suggest (again!), then in future I will delete your every comment that indicates to me that you still have not bothered to read the suggested articles, and ponder them.

              I’m sorry mate, I am just sick of wasting my time addressing unnecessary misunderstandings and misconceptions. If you won’t help yourself, I won’t (continue trying to do so) either.

            • mick July 23, 2013 at 3:54 pm #

              I was hoping to have a detailed look at the 2 links you sent me but it seems that your response has disappeared from the system. Could you please forward the links again. Thanks. Mick

            • The Blissful Ignoramus July 23, 2013 at 3:56 pm #

              No, it’s still there Mick, directly ^^ above ^^ your comment —

              https://barnabyisright.com/2013/07/20/warning-of-global-systemic-crisis-2-0-in-second-half-2013/#comment-13350

        • JMD July 22, 2013 at 7:23 pm #

          As I already said, the debt of your ‘banksters’ is denominated in $, the obligation of the government bank. I’ve spelt that fact out to you on numerous occasions, yet it doesn’t seem to have registered.

          Who is the ‘Don’ when the ‘banksters’ debt is the debt of the government?

          • The Blissful Ignoramus July 22, 2013 at 7:55 pm #

            “Who is the ‘Don’ when the ‘banksters’ debt is the debt of the government?”

            You’ve answered your own question JMD.

            Think about it.

    • mick July 21, 2013 at 2:39 pm #

      Why not “hang” the bankers. Some of them deserve it. You’ve got no chance of taking their assets as the big end of town has friends and is well versed in looking after its own interests.

      Whilst I see the tsunami coming I am not sure that sensible decisions will be made after it has hit as self interest of the few always wins over the common good. I suspect it will be no different if money printing results results in fiat money falling off a cliff. The well to do will not be holding huge amounts in bank accounts as they will be well out when lesser mortals are caught out.

      I agree on your view about gold, solver and farmland. You are assuming of course that the current stampede to sell Australian freehold farming land to foreign governments sees any decent farmland left for Australians. I have seen a figure of 11% gone in one report so not looking real good. Maybe we can become Chinese citizens.

      • Kevin Moore July 22, 2013 at 8:10 am #

        Mr Rothschilds armies will soon put paid to that idea Mick.
        .
        A description and history of government [ Bank ] policy enforcers –
        .
        Police Officer (pronounced policy officer) is a private security agent of a private company granted the authority by a particular government elite to alienate certain public and constitutional rights for profit and the privatization of “public peace” and protection duties at the expense of historic peace officers such as sheriffs and constables.
        .
        The origin of Police Officers
        .
        The concept of private militia companies being granted the authority to act as an occupation army against the general populace is an unprecedented and alien concept first invented in the mid-19th Century in England upon the bankruptcy of the Empire by the Rothschild dynasty.
        .
        Prior to this time and in many countries, constitutions and parliaments provided for a network of public servants called Peace Officers to serve the best interests of the public, work with Justices of the Peace and protect the public from corruption or harm. The office of Sheriff is one last example of one role that was instituted in many countries. The office of Constable in English colonies is another example of a public servant and peace officer.
        .
        However, following the upheaval of debt and control of the British Empire shifting to the banks, through the Metropolitan Police Act 1839, Metropolitan Police Courts Act 1839, a new system was introduced that “inclosed” the rights of the public to peace officers, replaced with policy enforcement officers (pronounced police officers) solely responsible to protect the interests of the elite and to generate revenue from the populace through fines, threats and penalties.
        .
        Today, most modern police forces find themselves in a permanent conflict with private shareholders demanding protection of the elite, organized crime duties and revenue raising, versus genuine concern for public safety and keeping the peace.
        .
        To avoid the breakdown of large scale police forces into warring factions, most police forces now separate certain duties to ensure front line agents are not exposed to the most extreme duties of
        private employees to the corporation, while maintaining the illusion that the privatization of public safety and protection is producing better results.
        .
        In some major cities where the private policy (police) companies seek greater control over the public, the police agents have been caught enacting and participating in riots, particularly in Europe.
        .
        Despite overwhelming evidence that private policy (police) militia are unconstitutional, have protected and promoted a system of entrenched organized crime and made many cities less safe, almost no private policy force has been disbanded in any major city to return to traditional law enforcement peace officers.
        .
        Australian Police are only Corporate Officers – UCC – Uniform Commercial Code.
        .
        Impersonating a commonwealth officer is a crime punishable of up to 2 years in jail.. yet every public (corporate) servant does it.
        .
        Australian-police-are-corporations-not-public-servants/
        .
        STATE VIC POLICE ABN 63 446 481 493
        STATE WA POLICE ABN 91 724 684 688
        STATE SA POLICE ABN 93 799 021 552
        STATE NSW POLICE ABN 43 408 613 180
        STATE TAS POLICE ABN 19 173 586 474
        STATE QLD POLICE ABN 29 409 225 509
        .
        SUPREME COURT OF VICTORIA (BUSINESS UNIT 19)(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        STATE OF VICTORIA(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        COUNTY COURT OF VICTORIA(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        JUDICIAL COLLEGE OF VICTORIA(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        LIQUOR LICENSING VICTORIA(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        ASSET CONFISCATION OFFICE(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        CONSUMER CREDIT FUND(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        MAGISTRATES COURT VICTORIA(ABN: 32 790 228 959)
        VICTORIAN GOVERNMENT SOLICITOR(ABN: 32 790 228 959)

    • Kevin Moore July 21, 2013 at 5:01 pm #

      Mick,
      .

      I imagine myself with a bar of gold in my hand going to the shops to get whatever I need, but I can’t figure out how I would shave off a bit of gold for each purchase. Could you explain? I agree about the productive farmland.

      • Tomorrows Serf July 22, 2013 at 8:19 pm #

        Hey Kevin,

        Don’t complicate a simple issue. Save in gold. Spend in silver. Small denomination coins seem like a good idea, as long as it doesn’t rise in price too much when the manipulation fails. (too bad if true price discovery is ever allowed to happen by the Powers that Be…..

  3. Kevin Moore July 21, 2013 at 9:53 pm #

    Michael Hudson Says Game Over for Our Post-Feudalistic Economy

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