Tag Archives: australian dollar

“Australian Dollar Is Not A Sacred Cow”

9 May

Barnaby Joyce writes for the Canberra Times:

National Party Senator Barnaby Joyce droving a mob of cattle west of Longreach, Queensland. Photo: Peter Rae

National Party Senator Barnaby Joyce droving a mob of cattle west of Longreach, Queensland. Photo: Peter Rae

Government has left cattle industry out in the cold

Fred Pascoe’s family goes back a fair way in the Gulf, possibly about 40,000 years.

His family didn’t meet a “whitefella” until 1904. That was his great-great grandfather, “Kangaroo”. In Fred’s words a “lusty” fellow who had seven wives. Fred jokes with a smirk that unfortunately that part of the family genes did not flow down.

Fred’s great-grandfather started working the cattle that have been a fixture of the Gulf ever since. His love of the country was too strong for the city. He died six days after moving to town in retirement.

Now Fred manages his own cattle property. Cattle have given Fred and his family a additional connection to his country. Cattle are now part of their culture.

Cattle are part of the nation’s culture too. The economy of the north depends on cattle. The truck drivers depend on them, the stock and station agents depend on them and even the local show and rodeo would not exist without them.

That’s what makes the government’s bungling of the live cattle saga a few years ago so galling. It was an attack on a culture. A culture that has been built up over more than 100 years, and now threatened by a combination of government incompetence, the roaring of money printing presses in other countries and the failure of monsoonal rains.

We can’t do much about that rain. I will leave that one to the local graziers and their God. We can, however, stop making bad policy decisions and start a debate about the high Australian dollar.

When we shut down the live cattle trade, we affect the food supply to a nation of more than 250 million people next door. Because of the undisputed barbaric acts of a small number of people in a very large industry we impugned an entire nation’s culture. The message was implicit but clear: we don’t trust you enough to provide you with food anymore.

Our government engaged in a prejudicial policy condemning the many based on the actions of a few. Since then the Government has made little attempt to support our own domestic cattle industry or make amends with our largest neighbour.

Because governments caused these problems, there is a moral obligation on them to help solve these problems. On Tuesday, I attended a beef crisis forum in Richmond. In a town of only 500 people in the Gulf, a crowd of 500 turned up, in a mood, not to vent frustrations, but to propose solutions and to look for leadership.

One of those solutions was for the government to purchase 100,000 head of cattle to put an immediate floor price in the market. Because the live cattle trade fiasco has dropped demand by about 300,000 head of cattle a year, beef prices are plummeting. In Longreach, cattle sold for $20 per head last week. That’s the equivalent of buying your scotch fillet for 10 ¢ a kilogram.

But the price of the dollar means our beef is still expensive to those overseas. More than 30 foreign central banks now hold Australian dollars, along with Google, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

The Botswana central bank is not diversifying into the Australian dollar because they share our love of a sunburnt country and wide, open plains, but because we are becoming a “safe haven” currency. Our exporters are paying their insurance policy.

Our terms of trade have fallen by 15 per cent, and economic growth is being downgraded. Still, our dollar remains relatively high.

The Reserve Bank recognised this on Tuesday by cutting interest rates, in part aimed at the high dollar. The Australian dollar is not a sacred cow.

The RBA has clearly announced that its monetary policy is now looking to target the dollar, and we have intervened directly in foreign exchange markets on 35 separate times in the past 24 years, including eight times since 1997.

Other nations are not as restrained as we are. The United States is now delivering quantitative easing at a rate of $85 billion a month. The Swiss have imposed a ceiling on their currency, and the new Shinzo Abe government in Japan is actively adopting policies to devalue its currency, by 20 per cent since last December.

Meanwhile, we are keeping our innocence and making life near impossible for those who we are relying on to figure ourselves out of our current financial mess. What’s the good of being pure, if you end up broke?

Regular readers know that I have written on this topic of the over-valued Australian dollar (due incoming “hot money” from other, currency-depreciating nations) since late 2011 –

Australia’s Debt Dreamtime

Bob’s No Mad Katter On RBA “Independence”

The Single Biggest Reason Why I Will Vote For Bob Katter’s Australian Party

Queenslander! This Is Why You Are A Complete Idiot If You Don’t Vote KAP Today

It’s wonderful – if all too belated – to finally see a politician from one of the so-called “major” parties speaking truthfully about the AUD exchange rate, and the close-mindedness on the part of our economic mandarins which has caused so much damage to Australian businesses (and thus, the economy) over the past couple of years.

Barnaby for PM.

Hello?! McFly?!! A Simple Question For Swan & Hockey

30 Apr

The Federal government budget has now been in deficit for 5 years straight.

Some analysts are predicting a further decade of budget deficits.

The Federal government presently owes $269.4 billion (77% of tax revenue) to creditors, over 70% of whom are “Non-resident” –

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management

The cost to taxpayers – the extra burden on the economy – of paying just the Interest on the debt accrued so far, is $12 – $13 billion every year

Budget 2012-13, MYEFO, Appendix B, Note 10

Budget 2012-13, MYEFO, Appendix B, Note 10

It is almost universally agreed – the RBA included – that the Australian Dollar is significantly over-valued compared to the currencies of other key trading nations.

It is also near-universally agreed that this over-valuation of the AUD is damaging the Australian economy (ie, reducing business profits, and tax receipts).

QUESTION:

Why are you continuing to increase the debt and interest burden on taxpayers (and the economy) by selling government bonds that owe interest to the bond holder, when you could simply order the Australian Treasury to (electronically) print Australian Dollars, use those new dollars to pay down the existing debts to foreigners, and, weaken the foreign-exchange value of the too-high Aussie Dollar all at the same time?

FOLLOW-UP QUESTION:

Are you galactically stupid? …

… or, is it that you are all just bought and paid for, gutless, traitorous, overpaid, 100% self-interested puppets of the international bankster sector?

Australian Dollar To 1.25 – Who Cares?

9 Mar

This article cross-posted from Lighthouse Securities, with kind permission of Greg McKenna. You can follow Greg on Twitter, and at MacroBusiness where he blogs as “Deus Forex Machina”.

Let me ask you a question.

Do you care if the Aussie Dollar heads toward 1.20 or 1.25 in the next 12 to 18 months as Australia’s alternative Treasurer Joe Hockey said the other day.

In the Sydney Morning Herald Mr Hockey was quoted as saying,

”it is not inconceivable for the Australian dollar to reach $US1.25 over the next 12 to 18 months”

I agree, it is not inconceivable that the Aussie heads to these levels not seen since the 1970′s its a low probability I think that one that has enough serious implications that we need to have a planned response for industry from government.

So I was encouraged that the SMH also reported Mr Hockey said,

It is time to carefully consider what a comparatively high Australian dollar means for key sectors of our economy.

Big tick Joe! Or at least I thought there was a big tick but then I saw that he also said,

In a warning to those in the Coalition advocating protectionism, Mr Hockey said it would not be propping up unsustainable industries.

While it was worth providing help to those industries facing short-to-medium-term pressures, such as the high dollar, industries which are proving unsustainable over the longer term for many reasons would not be saved.

While they could be eligible for such assistance as retraining or relocating workers, ”we should not, however, be in the business of propping up industries that for many reasons do not have a sustainable future in Australia”, he said.

He said the ”brutal truth” was that managers and consumers, not government, would determine the fate of individual businesses

Theoretically and politically I have probably always been to the right of centre, as I age and since I’ve become a dad I find myself moving to the left on social issues but in general I’d normally agree with the sentiment of what Mr hockey is saying above.

Certainly I welcome the fact that he is thinking about my oft mooted plan to assist companies and industries that are being buffeted by the high dollar  and in general why would you prop up other industries that are on the way out. Its my typewriter/iPad analogy I’ve used a few times now.

But what bothers me about the political class in Australia at the moment is that they take acceptable and plausible theoretical constructs and write them into stone as laws.

Take the Budget surplus at any cost pact between the two parties as an example – at a time of massive structural change in the economy, structural change that has the RBA on the back foot in managing this sports car/draft horse economy there may be, probably is a need for some support in some parts of the economy.

But no we can’t do that – Swanny and Hockey are too busy leading the war cry each morning.

SURPLUS, SURPLUS, SURPLUS, Oi, Oi, Oi.

Even if the Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson says they are going to be “only wafer thin”

And so it is with the Aussie Dollar’s strength – we know its high because the central banks of Russia, Brazil, China and others are buying and have bought lots of Aussie. We know its high because in a moribund economic global outlook even a print of 0.4% GDP growth seems still ok. We know the Aussie Dollar is high because our interest rates are high and we know that unless or until China slows and lets their currency float the Aussie Dollar remains its proxy.

So nothing is going to be done it seems as RBA Deputy Governor Lowe pointed out the other day. Bloomberg quoted him the other day saying they are watching things,

“It is possible for exchange rates to overshoot,” Lowe said in his prepared remarks. “While the evidence of the past 30 years is that movements in the exchange rate have been an important stabilizing force for the Australian economy, the unusual nature of the current forces means that we need to watch things closely.”

But I’ve always got the sense they are glad the Aussie is as high as it is cause it reduces the pressure to smash households even further with interest rate increases. I think Lowe makes this point below,

“On the evidence to date, something like the current combination of exchange rates and interest rates appears to be what is needed to maintain overall macroeconomic stability,” Lowe told the AIG, whose members include manufacturers hurt by the currency. “The high exchange rate and the high interest rates relative to the rest of the world are both being driven by the fact that Australia is a major beneficiary of the change in world relative prices.”

Indeed Deputy Governor Lowe feels the Aussie is not misaligned fundamentally

“It’s difficult to make a strong case that the exchange rate is fundamentally misaligned,” Lowe said in response to a question from the audience after a speech today in Sydney, citing the nation’s solid economy. “That makes the hurdle for intervention quite high.”

But part of this argument I think is flawed and circular. The price of our commodity exports is largely denominated in US Dollars and the US is actively engaged in a policy of making the Greenback as weak as possible without cause it to crash. And they are succeeding in using this to increase exports as a total percentage of GDP, quite a few percentage points over the past few years.

So while they win, commodities are pushed higher in price than underlying demand warrants because the USD is weak and we just suck it up and continue the experiment all the while knowing that other nations are deliberately manipulating their currencies to their own best interests.

I even saw an article in the Atlantic last weekend arguing that currency wars are good . The author argues that beggar-thy-neighbour policies are good,

Rather than cooperating, countries are fighting over trade. But in this case, some fighting is good, and more fighting is better. Countries that lose exports want to get them back. And the best way to do that is to devalue their own currencies too. This, of course, causes more countries to lose exports. They also want to get their exports back, so they also push down their currencies. It’s devaluation all the way down. All thanks to economic peer pressure.

Nobody wins if everyone does it. But for those who are happy with their theoretical purity that seems to pervade Australia economic thinking its a death spiral for currency exposed industries.

At a time of massive structural change where, as Bill Evans said yesterday, the mining boom is simply eye watering but the rest of the economy is under intense pressure I would like to think that we wont be trying to pick winners but we might find some money to ensure that we at least give ourselves and our industry a chance for survival.

It is clear to me that the push back from the policy making and political class on this topic of the Aussie Dollar’s strength is such that they recognise there is an issue but it is also clear they are trying to manage the issue rather than deal with it.

We are a small open economy with a currency that trades far too much for our relevance in the global economy and thus there is little we can do to halt its strength. We just dont have the fire power unless we want to print lots and lots of Aussie Dollars.

So it’s not easy but it would be good if as Joe Hockey said we consider carefully what the impact is going to be on our industry, on our jobs and on the fabric of our society in the years ahead.

You’re probably sick of hearing this from me but I think at a time of structural change it is important we talk about the structure of the change and the structure that in the end results from the change. now, ex-ante not in the future, ex-poste.

Have a great day.

Gregory McKenna

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the above article are the author’s own. They should not be interpreted as reflecting any views held by Senator Barnaby Joyce or The Nationals.

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