Tag Archives: economists

Why We Could Replace The RBA With 5 Bits Of Paper And A Hat

29 Dec

Why do we listen to any of these bozos?

Ever.

And why do we pay them $1m annual salaries?!

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens argues that economic forecasts should not be seen as handed down from the oracles.

Umm. We’re paying you $1.05m per year mate. Tell us something we don’t know.

He had the Reserve Bank staff review their own accuracy and found that 12 months into the future, they got the gross domestic product number right to within 0.5 percentage points only 20 per cent of the time.

Brilliant.

Our long term “trend growth” is around 2.5% (and falling).

And yet, the RBA’s self-review shows that these elite economic forecasters only get their GDP growth forecast accurate to within about 20% … on one-in-five occasions.

I have a suggestion.

Sack the lot of them. Abolish the RBA. And replace them with a hat containing 5 slips of paper. The slips can be marked in 0.5% increments, from 1% through 3%.

The World’s Greatest Treasurer can draw one slip of paper out of the hat for the May budget. And another for the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) update.

Voila!

Economic forecasting of equal accuracy to the RBA’s elite, criminally overpaid #JAFA’s.

Imagine how much taxpayer money we would save.

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