Tag Archives: employment

Julia’s Big Lie On Jobs

3 Dec

Back in May, barnabyisright.com was the first (and only?) to debunk Treasurer Swan’s hand waving Big Lie about how many jobs the Labor government have “created” since coming to power. Using their own budget documents. It was Wayne’s pre-budget red herring, to distract the media from the upcoming record budget deficit announcement.

We followed up in June, with conclusive proof of his Big Lie from the Australian Bureau of Statistics official Labour Force data.

Now Julia herself has joined in Wayne’s lying-on-the-jobs action.

Here’s what she claimed yesterday at the ALP’s National Conference, in a speech where she used the word “jobs” over 30 times … a classic snow-them-with-BS propaganda technique that explains why the fourth estate won’t notice or check up on what she claimed (h/t Andrew Bolt):

“We are on track to create 300,000 new jobs over the next two years”

Statements like that prompt your humble blogger to rub his typing fingers together with Monty-esque glee:

Especially after our Treasurer’s claims back in May.

Recall, not only did Wayne falsely claim that “we created 750,000 jobs since we came to office when other nations shed millions of jobs…“.

He went further:

“…and we will create half a million more in the next two years“

Let us leave aside for the moment the tiny little matter of Wayne’s “half a million more” back in May, versus Julia’s “300,000” yesterday.

Even though we could well say, “Here endeth the lesson”.

Let us instead take another look at the latest ABS Labour Force statistics, to see whether or not Julia is “on track to create 300,000 new jobs over the next two years”.

Here’s a chart of Full-time Employed Persons from June – the end of last financial year, and the month following Wayne’s original “half a million more” claim – through to October:

Click to enlarge

Oops.

That’s 5,300 fewer full-time employed persons. In 4 months (end June to end October).

How about Part-time employed persons?

Click to enlarge

Hmmmm.

That’s 22,700 more part-time employed persons. In 4 months.

And the grand total employed persons?

Click to enlarge

Ok.

17,300 more “employed” persons. In 4 months.

Or just 4,325 more per month.

At that rate, it would take the government until mid-April 2017 to create Julia’s promised “300,000 new jobs”.

And until mid-February 2021 to create Wayne’s promised “half a million more”.

Of course, that’s only if we are happy to (a) ignore the fall in full-time employed persons, and (b) assume that the government alone, not the private sector, “created” a “new job” for every single one of those 17,300 extra “employed persons”.

Ridiculous.

“We are on track” to get there “over the next two years”, Julia?

Labor’s lying on jobs would make the stupidest planker blush.

Economic planking.

A fitting metaphor for the most dishonest, idiotic, incompetent government this nation has ever seen.

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Swan: We Created Every Single New Job In The Entire Nation Since We Came To Office … And 10,000 More, That Don’t Even Exist

22 Jun

Goose talking "jobs jobs jobs"

Do you remember Wayne’s pre-budget mantra?

That big red herring about jobs – the one that the entire Australian media corps swallowed hook, line, and sinker?

We created 750,000 jobs since we came to office when other nations shed millions of jobs…

Back in early May, we first debunked Wayne’s Big Lie ( “Behold, Wayne’s Große Lüge” ), simply by comparing his own Final Budget Outcome 2009-10 to the Final Budget Outcome for 2007-08, the year that Labor came to office.

Of course, that simple comparison using government budget documents did not take into account a number of factors. Including what may have happened in the employment trends between the end of financial year 2010, and Wayne’s grand claim in May 2011.

So now, dear reader, we present for your enjoyment the definitive proof. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force data from November 2007 (the month that Rudd won the election) through to May 2011 (the month in which Wayne was frantically waving his “jobs jobs jobs” red herring, to distract from his upcoming record-high budget deficit announcement).

First, here is a chart for Full-time employed persons:

Click to enlarge

That’s a grand total of (8.0271 million – 7.6689 million) 358,200 more Full-time employed persons now, than in November 2007.

Second, here is a chart for Part-time employed persons:

Click to enlarge

That’s a grand total of (3.4135 million – 3.0317 million) 381,800 more Part-time employed persons now, than in November 2007.

For a grand total of … 740,000 more employed persons than in November 2007.

In a nation where the population increased by 1.237 million from September 2007 to September 2010 (the latest data), including a natural increase of 0.5 million (births minus deaths):

Click to enlarge

Now, what was that you said, Wayne?

We created 750,000 jobs since we came to office when other nations shed millions of jobs…

Let’s take a moment to enter an imaginary parallel universe.  A fantasy world where the Australian private sector – that’s every non-government business in the nation – did not create a single new job – full or part-time – in the past 3.5 years. 

Not one.

According to the official ABS data, even if the entire private sector did not create a single new job, and instead, we swallow the patently absurd notion that Labor alone was responsible for creating every single new full-time and part-time job in the entire country over the past 3.5 years, Wayne’s claim would still fall short long.  By 10,000 jobs.

Now, perhaps you are one of the eagle-eyed readers who has spotted the big 80,000 fall in full-time employed persons in April-May.  An ominous collapse, only one-tenth less than the GFC-triggered f/t employed persons plunge in Feb-Mar 2009.

And perhaps you are also quick-witted enough to be thinking, “Hey wait on there mate, Wayne couldn’t have known the May figures in early May, could he?”

And you would be right on both counts.

Doesn’t help our Wayne’s claim though.

Because if you calculate November 2007 through April 2011 instead, you get a grand total of … (380,200 F/t + 352,000 P/t) 732,200 employed persons.

Meaning, his lie was even bigger than you thought.

Be-holed, Wayne’s Große Lüge.

If you are going to lie, make it a Big Lie.

And repeat it often.

If you haven’t dug your fork in to check if this goose is fully cooked yet, then you might also enjoy our debunking of Wayne’s “But wait … there’s more!” free steak knives claim.

That the government “will create half a million more” jobs in the next two years.

A ridiculous lie that is clearly betrayed by the evidence buried in the fine print of his own May Budget documents –

Economic parameter variations are forecast to reduce expenses in 2011‑12 and over the forward estimates … Partly offsetting these reductions … an upwards revision in the estimated number of unemployment benefit recipients is expected to increase expenses in 2011‑12 compared to MYEFO, although this is partly unwound by a reduction in the forecast of the number of unemployment benefit recipients in 2012‑13.

Budget 2011-12 | Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 6, Table 2

Dig your fork in here – “Half A Million Jobs” – Wayne’s Big Lie (Reprise)

Today's Special - Roast Goose

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Behold, Wayne’s Große Lüge

4 May

Treasurer Wayne Swan is busily preparing hearts and minds for his fourth consecutive Budget … deficit.  A deficit that’s going to be epic.

Oops.

Time to wave a big red herring:

We created 750,000 jobs since we came to office when other nations shed millions of jobs…

Let’s take a bite out of his red herring.  Is the jobs claim true?

Wayne’s former colleague Lindsay Tanner –  recently confessed expert in the “dark arts” of lying with numbers– has given us this timely warning:

“… whenever a politician cites… figures to show what a fine job he or she is doing, examine the fine print very carefully.”

Ok. Let’s do that.

If it’s true that Labor has created 750,000 jobs since coming to power, one would think this “fact” might be reflected in some official statistics.  Say, in the official government Final Budget Outcome reports.

According to the 2007-08 Final Budget Outcome, the last year of the Howard Government brought in $126.135 Billion in Total individuals and other withholding taxation:

Source: Final Budget Outcome 2007-08 | Part One, Table 2: Australian Government general government sector revenue

Now, if Labor really has created 750,000 jobs since they came to office, then you’d expect the Total individuals and other withholding taxation for last year (2009-10) to be a lot higher than in 2007-08, right?

After all, even if these “750,000 jobs” were all only modestly paid jobs – say, $35K p.a. – then you would expect the government should have received around 750,000 x $4,350 = $3.26 Billion more individual income tax revenue than in 2007-08 … right?

Wrong.

According to the 2009-10 Final Budget Outcome, the Labor Government brought in $3.31 Billion less from individual income taxes last year than in 2007-08:

Final Budget Outcome 2009-10 | Part Two, Table 8, Note 3: Taxation revenue by type

There you have it.

In Wayne’s World, 750,000 jobs created means $3.31 Billion less income tax revenue.

Who knew?

Rather than adding to Government revenue, “job creation” actually loses money.

On the eve of Budget 2011 … and a fourth consecutive mega-deficit … this is Wayne’s headline argument for Labor’s record in economic management.

“750,000 jobs created”.

But wait … there’s more!

“Half a million more”. “In the next two years”.

Be-holed, Wayne’s Große Lüge.

If you are going to lie, make it a Big Lie. And repeat it often.

Everyone will believe you because –

“They’re government statis…. they’re facts” (2.27min)

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