Tag Archives: IPCC

IPCC Forecasts Of Climate Doom Drastically Wrong

16 Sep

5e8

More on the unravelling of the Great Global Warming Swindle.

From the Mail on Sunday (UK):

A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.

The Mail on Sunday has obtained the final draft of a report to be published later this month by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ultimate watchdog whose massive, six-yearly ‘assessments’ are accepted by environmentalists, politicians and experts as the gospel of climate science.

They are cited worldwide to justify swingeing fossil fuel taxes and subsidies for ‘renewable’ energy.

Yet the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment, published in 2007.

Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.

But the new report says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction.

The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

They recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.

They admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.

The IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why…

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One of the report’s own authors, Professor Myles Allen, the director of Oxford University’s Climate Research Network, last night said this should be the last IPCC assessment – accusing its cumbersome production process of ‘misrepresenting how science works’.

Despite the many scientific uncertainties disclosed by the leaked report, it nonetheless draws familiar, apocalyptic conclusions – insisting that the IPCC is more confident than ever that global warming is mainly humans’ fault…

Last night Professor Judith Curry, head of climate science at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said the leaked summary showed that ‘the science is clearly not settled, and is in a state of flux’.

She said it therefore made no sense that the IPCC was claiming that its confidence in its forecasts and conclusions has increased.

We Got It Wrong On Global Warming: IPCC

16 Sep

dunce

From the Environment Editor at The Australian:

THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest assessment reportedly admits its computer drastically overestimated rising temperatures, and over the past 60 years the world has in fact been warming at half the rate claimed in the previous IPCC report in 2007.

More importantly, according to reports in British and US media, the draft report appears to suggest global temperatures were less sensitive to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide than was previously thought.

The 2007 assessment report said the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade, but according to Britain’s The Daily Mail the draft update report says the true figure since 1951 has been 0.12C.

Last week, the IPCC was forced to deny it was locked in crisis talks as reports intensified that scientists were preparing to revise down the speed at which climate change is happening and its likely impact.

Professor Judith Curry, head of climate science at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, told The Daily Mail the leaked summary showed “the science is clearly not settled, and is in a state of flux”.

The Wall Street Journal said the updated report, due out on September 27, would show “the temperature rise we can expect as a result of manmade emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPCC thought in 2007”.

The WSJ report said the change was small but “it is significant because it points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet”.

After several leaks and reports on how climate scientists would deal with a slowdown in the rate of average global surface temperatures over the past decade, the IPCC was last week forced to deny it had called for crisis talks.

“Contrary to the articles the IPCC is not holding any crisis meeting,” it said in a statement.

The IPCC said more than 1800 comments had been received on the final draft of the “summary for policymakers” to be considered at a meeting in Stockholm before the release of the final report. It did not comment on the latest report, which said scientists accepted their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

According to The Daily Mail, the draft report recognised the global warming “pause”, with average temperatures not showing any statistically significant increase since 1997.

Scientists admitted large parts of the world had been as warm as they were now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250, centuries before the Industrial Revolution.

And, The Daily Mail said, a forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense had been dropped.

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Matt Ridley said the draft report had revised downwards the “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, a measure of eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It had also revised down the Transient Climate Response, the actual climate change expected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide about 70 years from now.

Ridley said most experts believed that warming of less than 2C from pre-industrial levels would result in no net economic and ecological damage. “Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC’s emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083 the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm,” he said.

Global Cooling: Arctic Ice Cap Grows 60%

8 Sep

Nice timing.

Just as Australia gets a new government. One that has made a “blood pledge” to “scrap the carbon tax”, and the $10 billion “green bank”.

From the UK’s The Mail on Sunday:

Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year with top scientists warning of global COOLING

  • Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
  • BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
  • Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

Screen shot 2013-09-08 at 8.33.51 PM

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The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter  climate change.

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report – a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will now hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month.

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.

In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007.

This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

She pointed to long-term cycles  in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and  suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.

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‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’

Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years.

Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause.

Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 – the year the IPCC says that shrinking began.

Professor Curry said the ice’s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. ‘Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,’ she said.

When First They Practice To Deceive And Be Very, Very Stupid

14 Dec

Terry McCrann (Herald-Sun, Daily Telegraph) is the only mainstream economics commentator in Australia that I’m aware of, who has consistently called out the Great Global Warming Swindle for what it is.

Seems the pathetically transparent spin from Combet et al following Durban, has inspired Mr McCrann to new heights of excellence … in calling a spade a spade.

Following is a brief excerpt from his brilliant column in yesterday’s Herald-Sun.  Be sure to follow the link to read the whole thing.

I think Mr McCrann is a little bit McCranky about all the BS:

The great climate change gravy train rolls on

The great climate gravy train rolls on and Julia Gillard and Bob Brown’s great big carbon tax just got bigger. Much bigger.

Phew. The dedicated delegates had to sacrifice a weekend, stay up all night and pump out even more carbon dioxide, but they were able to pull victory right out of the jaws of disaster, figuratively at five minutes after midnight.

There they were facing the end of their world, their cosy world of riding the climate gravy train from one annual two-week conference in a resort city, to the next, and all the points through the year in-between.

Always, always, being prepared to make the tough choices: which resort city, and indeed, north or south?

Faced with going down in history as the free-lunchers that betrayed not just this generation of climate change main-chancers, but the next free-lunching generation and indeed the generation after that, they resolutely put their snouts – sorry, their shoulders – to the wheel and ground out a deal.

Success! Simply put, they ensured that the great climate gravy train would NOT come to a shuddering stop in Durban. It was given a new head of steam to roll on to Qatar next year and who knows where else right through to at least 2015.

They’ve done themselves and their peer group proud. It’s perhaps not well understood just how many billions of dollars and how many probably hundreds of thousands of main-chancers ride that gravy train.

It’s not just the billions of dollars that have been rescued for the ten thousand-plus people that most prominently ride the climate gravy train from one conference to the next.

But in the finest example of real trickle-down in action, all the people who feed off the climate hysteria and inanity beneath them.

From people building useless solar panels and wind turbines (sic), to feeding off the exorbitant power subsidies, to all the climate institutes (sic), to those doing research, all the NGOs, etc, etc, etc.

All their dollars were at risk if the gravy train had ground to a stop in Durban…

Combet and Gillard can’t have it both ways. Either we have signed on in Durban to a massive increase in our carbon tax and the virtual and very quick elimination of our cheap coal-fired power stations.

Or the whole thing is a disgraceful and very expensive charade. There won’t be any real deal in 2015 and we will be left with a useless but punitive tax.

What’s that saying? Oh yes. Oh what a tangled web, a prime minister and climate change minister weave, when first they practice to deceive and be very, very, stupid.

The truth need not hurt.

Sometimes, hearing the cold truth can be downright enjoyable.

Thank you Mr McCrann.

An epic column

More Proof That Support For Carbon Price Means Support For Killing Black People

9 Dec

Your humble blogger copped some flack via that paragon of intelligent public discourse (Twitter) for publishing a very similar headline in October.

Then, we saw how an Oxfam report shed light on the violent forced eviction and genocide of Ugandans by the UN-supported carbon credit ‘farming’ corporation, New Forests Company.

Today … in recognition of the final day of the UN IPCC’s warmageddonist conference in Durban, Africa … we look at a similar story from Honduras, as reported by Jeremy Kryt in the online In These Times.

Jeremy is a graduate of the Indiana University School of Journalism and the University of Iowa Writers’ Workshop. He has been reporting from Honduras since August 2009, and his coverage of the crisis there has appeared, or is forthcoming, in The Earth Island Journal, Huffington Post, Alternet and The Narco News Bulletin, among other publications.

Following is his report reproduced in full:

A boy stands next to a hut on a palm plantation in the Aguan Valley in August. The slogan reads "Area recovered by the MUCA," which stands for "United Peasant Movement of Aguan." (Photo by Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images)

Carbon Credits in the ‘Valley of Death’

Uncovering the ugly effects of U.N.-backed ‘clean development’ in Honduras.

AGUAN VALLEY, HONDURAS–At 3,000 square miles, the Aguan River Valley in northeastern Honduras is about the same size as California’s Death Valley. But despite being green and fertile, the Aguan basin is becoming famous as a “valley of death.” Since January 2010, at least 45 displaced peasants have been killed in clashes over land rights in Aguan, and “the actual number of killings is probably much higher,” according to Annie Bird, co-director of the human rights advocacy group Rights Action (RA), who visited Honduras in September.

Bird and other critics say that the violence in Aguan is driven by competition over resources between local farmers and large-scale, biofuel production facilities. The valley is home to more than a dozen African palm plantations that supply “green” energy to Europe and Asia, as well as a pair of biogas plants that operate as part of a United Nations carbon-credit initiative.

“The agribusinesses are after all the prime farmland in Aguan,” Bird says. “That’s what’s driving the conflict here.”

African palm plantations have also been linked to land-based violence in Indonesia, Africa, and elsewhere in Latin America, as worldwide demand for biofuels has soared in recent years. But using arable land for fuels, as opposed to food production, has caused a spike in global food prices. In October 2011, the U.N. Committee on Food Security issued a report citing biofuel production as one of the leading causes of food shortages worldwide.

Ignoring its own committee’s report, the U.N. continues to endorse the two biogas plants attached to African palm plantations in the Aguan Valley as part of its controversial Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) program. A product of the Kyoto Protocol, CDMs allow governments and companies from Western countries to trade carbon credits with businesses in developing nations that utilize renewable energy and other carbon-saving techniques. Critics of the CDM program point to the food-vs-fuel dilemma, as well as the issue of “additionality”–that is, whether or not a given CDM would exist without U.N.-sanctioned investments. But Bird says there is a moral component as well.

“By approving investment in these projects, the U.N. has made itself an accomplice to a human rights crisis,” Bird says. “It’s just shameful.”

Killings and forced evictions

Both the CDMs in Aguan use the bacteria-rich wastewater left over from palm-oil extraction to produce methane for biogas. But the methane capture process is only cost-effective on a large scale–and observers say that gives local companies a direct incentive to expand operations.

David Calix, spokesman for the Campesino Movement of Aguan (MCA), says, “Within the last two years more than 1,500 peasant families have lost their homes, schools and communities due to forceful evictions,” all of which have been linked to African Palm expansion efforts in the Aguan valley.

In July, the International Federation of Human Rights (FIDH) released a report on Aguan alleging evictions and armed attacks against local communities by “plantation security guards and private militia groups” allowed to act with impunity. The FIDH paper forced a couple of powerful European investors to back out of the Aguan CDM project and caused the European Parliament to order a fact-finding mission. So far, however, these measures don’t seem to have had any impact on the escalating violence.

Over just two days in August, skirmishes between guards and peasants left 11 people dead. A few days later, two more campesino leaders were assassinated–one of them, Pedro Salgado, was shot down in his home along with his wife. An entire peasant village was burned to the ground. The international outcry became so severe that in early September, the Honduran government dispatched a force of about 1,000 special police officers and soldiers to occupy the valley.

But Bird says that instead of protecting peasants’ human rights, the occupation forces have aided in their persecution. Reports have emerged of police and soldiers cracking down on peasant communities, and even taking part in evictions. “Death squad” attacks on peasants have continued at about the same pace during the occupation, with four assassinations in the same week in early October. No arrests have been made in any of the killings, and no suspects have been named.

Hazardous occupation

“The troops say they have come to bring us security, but that is a lie,” says MCA President Rodolfo Cruz. “They are here to serve the interests of the rich land owners, the same ones who control the politicians back in [the Honduran capital of] Tegucigalpa.” Cruz is also acting mayor of a small peasant community called Rigores, which he claims has been threatened several times with eviction by both security guards and law enforcement.

Cruz also reports that citizens are being searched at random, and that there have been mass round-ups and arrests as the authorities hunt down leaders of the movement.

“They are accusing us of having weapons, of forming an insurgency,” says Cruz, whose 16-year-old son, Santos, was allegedly tortured for information while in police custody on September 19. Cruz maintains that the MCA and other organizations are pacifist movements dedicated to nonviolent resistance.

Bird, who has researched the case, believes there is no doubt that Cruz’ son was targeted by authorities because his father is a prominent spokesman for land reform. “It’s all part of their pattern of intimidation,” she says. “There is no functional justice system in Honduras.” As further evidence of legal dysfunction, Bird points out that the businessman with the most holdings in Aguan, Miguel Facusse Barjum, was recently revealed by WikiLeaks to have strong ties to Colombian cocaine traffickers. “The police are evicting peasants from the property of a known drug lord,” she says. “That just shows you how rotten the system is.”

Although in September there were hints in the Honduran press that the police have captured cell phones that prove the existence of a rebel army some 300 strong, Honduran Police Chief Julio Benitez is much more circumspect. “We really don’t know what is going on in Aguan,” Avila says. “We know there are armed groups. We know people are being shot up under mysterious circumstances. But it is very complicated.”

When asked about the charges of police brutality, Avila declined to respond, saying only, “[The Honduran police] are a professional organization. We behave in a professional manner. We are working hard to safeguard the peasants of Aguan and to protect them from violent criminals.”

Push for reform

“The situation in Honduras is, of course, of great concern to us,” CDM board Chair Martin Hession says. “We don’t want to be associated with this type of thing in any way.” Hession says that as a result of the violence in Aguan, the CDM Board has “increased surveillance” in regard to approving new projects.

But Eva Filzmoser, program director of the Brussels-based CDM Watch, believes that’s too little, too late. “We are deeply disappointed … that the [Aguan] project was registered despite the serious concerns about alleged human rights abuses,” Filzmoser wrote in an e-mail.

Filzmoser charges that Hession and the rest of the board chose to ignore early reports of violence coming out of Honduras when they approved the project in July of 2011. Part of the problem is systemic, she writes, stemming from a lack of stakeholder oversight by the CDM board itself. “The [Aguan] project would never have been registered if the proper rules were in place,” Filzmoser wrote.

Bird also sees an inherent flaw in the CDM program. “If you’re taking away land from poor people to generate biofuels, you’re effectively condemning them to death by starvation,” she says.

Hession says such things are beyond the purview of the CDM board. “We can’t be the arbiter of human rights across the world.” To which Bird responds: “That’s the single, fundamental mandate of the U.N. Human rights are what the U.N. was created to promote. And the CDM board is still part of the U.N.”

For Cruz, who is also a farmer, the issue at stake is less philosophical than practical: “All we want is a place to grow our corn, to grow our beans,” he says. “All we want is a right to work the land.”

I can think of no more apropos concluding comment, than to repeat that of my October 14th Ugandan genocide post:

This is just one [more] example of the unintended (?) consequences of the universally-ignorant support by multitudes of morally self-righteous, urban rich white people, for “pricing carbon” in the name of “saving the planet”…

As has been demonstrated countless times on this blog – including from the government’s legislation – the “carbon tax” has never had anything whatsoever to do with climate change.

It is, and always has been, all about money. Derivatives, to be precise.

“Putting a price on carbon” is all about legally enabling the predatory financial sector to rape the world all over again, with a new derivatives-based ponzi scheme, after their Western world real estate derivatives bubble exploded (GFC1).

It is a very simple scam.

Carbon “pricing” creates in law a new artificial ‘commodity’ called “carbon ‘units’, having an artificially-created (by proclamation) monetary value.

Who benefits?

On the lower level, governments. The basic carbon “price” for selling (on threat of gaol) their “permits” to “pollute”, represents a new cashcow for politicians. For handing out to their mates, favouring special interests, and bribing the ever-more welfare-dependent electorate to vote for them (ie, keep them in power).

On the higher (unseen) level, the international shadow banking sector. “Pricing carbon” means they can (a) cream off billions in fees and commissions on the trade in those permits, but far more importantly (b) instantly create unlimited quantities of wholly unregulated carbon derivatives, to gamble on unregulated international trading markets.

Exactly like the Western real estate bubble.

If you support “putting a price on carbon”, then what you are really supporting is two outcomes.

Impoverishing the West.

And genocide of black people.

All for the benefit of … not the environment … but bankers.

UPDATE:

And the push to use prime agricultural land for carbon credit “farming” includes our own backyard (h/t @HiggsBoson4):

Bio Lands Pty Ltd (Bio Lands) has compiled a substantial portfolio of grazing/biodiversity offset lands. The portfolio can provide the development industry with rapid access to strategically acquired, fully documented biodiversity offsets

Click to enlarge

And from ABC News yesterday:

Carbon farming starts today – in a limited way

Farmers can earn money from reducing carbon emissions from today.

The Federal Government’s Carbon Farming Initiative has opened for business, but there’s a catch.

Only two methods that farmers and landholders can use to cut emissions have been approved, one of which is capturing methane from piggeries.

Parliamentary Secretary for Climate Change Mark Dreyfus says more methods will be approved in coming months.

“We think it’s important to take time to make sure the methodologies have integrity, because the methodologies lead to the ability to sell carbon credits and companies that are purchasing carbon credits want to know that the credits represent real emissions reductions.”

I suggest that the “integrity” of carbon credit “farming” “methodologies” is already very evident indeed. One only need cast one’s eyes around the world, at the precedents that have been set elsewhere.

New Climategate Emails Released

23 Nov

UPDATE 2:

A few gems I’ve spotted while trawling the emails in last couple hours (my emphasis added) –

5339.txt

from: PÂl Svensson <paal.svensson@tgsnopec.no>
to: “Keith Briffa” <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

My feeling is that the greatest contributor to worldwide temperature changes is the variation in solar influx on earth.

******************

5341.txt

from: Robert Nicholls <R.Nicholls@mdx.ac.uk>
to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, nwa1@soton.ac.uk, arnell61@btinternet.com,  PARRYML@aol.com

… an implicit message of Table 2 is that adaptation could handle climate change alone (the -15% option), so why are we worrying about mitigation? I think that this will be noted by many readers and it would be best if the piece had an explicit view on this, or delete the -15% option.

******************

5316.txt

from: Simon Tett <simon.tett@metoffice.com>
to: AndrÈ Berger <berger@astr.ucl.ac.be>

Andre,
I asked the UK policy people in Defra what they thought! Their view is that as we are not likely to head into an ice age soon it is not something they consider very important.

Do you think we will be going into an ice age quickly in the next 100 years or so ? (or even 1000 years).

******************

Most interesting, given the the 2010 Bilderberg Group meeting had global cooling on its agenda for discussion:

The 58th Bilderberg Meeting will be held in Sitges, Spain 3 – 6 June 2010. The Conference will deal mainly with Financial Reform, Security, Cyber Technology, Energy, Pakistan, Afghanistan, World Food Problem, Global Cooling, Social Networking, Medical Science, EU-US relations.

Back to the emails:

(Referencing the IPCC chapter review process)

5255.txt

date: Fri Jan 14 11:15:38 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
to: Ricardo <rgarciah@fis.ucm.es>

Thanks for the update on CC. The zeroth-order draft won’t be available for general review. The first order draft will in the late summer. However, is you email me in 3-4 weeks time, I’ll see if I have a can send you anything.

******************

Compare the document included in this Climategate2 email release, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group One, Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections, a “welcome” letter to its lead authors, dated August 18 2004:

Dear IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 lead authors,

The Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs) of Chapter 10, Jerry Meehl and Thomas Stocker, welcome you to the IPCC process as lead authors (LAs) of Chapter 10!  This email serves to formally initiate the process, to give you updates on current status, and provide more information regarding what is going to be expected of you and when various activities will occur.

The roadmap to publication of AR4 in 2007

After Trieste, we will commence writing what is known as the “zero order draft”.  This is due to be submitted to the WGI TSU by mid-January, 2005.

The zero order draft will be read by “friendly reviewers” chosen by us

*********************************

UPDATE:

For those questioning if these emails (see below) are real, this from wattsupwiththat.com:

UPDATE2: 8:45AM PST The Guardian has a story up be Leo Hickman, and this excerpt suggests they may be the real deal:

Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is “of interest” to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.

The emails appear to be genuine, but this has yet to be confirmed by the University of East Anglia. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages.

UPDATE3: 9:25 AM PST – Having read a number of emails, and seeing this quote from Mike Mann in the Guardian:

When asked if they were genuine, he said: “Well, they look like mine but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”

I’m going to conclude they are the real deal. I’ve posted a BitTorrent link to the file below. One big difference between Climategate 1 and 2 is that in 1, it took days for the MSM to catch on, now they are on top of it.

UPDATE4: 9:45 AM PST I’ve changed the headline from Climategate 2.0 to Climategate 2.0  emails – They’re real and they’re spectacular!  with a hat tip to Jerry Seinfeld. The relevance of that headline is particularly interesting in the context of where Dr. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has his office in NYC.

UPDATE 5: 11:00AM PST In a statement, UEA doesn’t deny these emails, but posts about the whitewash investigations of the past, like they matter now.

*********************************

Cue theme from The Twilight Zone.

Barely 24 hours ago, in response to weekend news stories that Prince Philip had bollocked wind farms as “useless”, and that the latest IPCC report had begun to gently cast some doubt on its own core tenets, I posted the following in “An Ill Wind Blows For Wind Farms”:

Your humble blogger warns AGW-sceptic readers not to be naïve.

We are being “played”.

The eco-elite are not “waking up”.

They are not trying to slowly and gently “weasel out” of their long-held pro-AGW position.

Far more likely, is that they are deliberately sowing the seeds of confusion.

With the result? Anger and distrust.

Want to rule the world?

Want the peoples of the world to willingly and happily abandon the idea of national governance, and embrace the idea of supranational (ie, World) Government?

This is how to do it.

A carefully planned, far-sighted program of dividing the people’s of the world into For and Against the green religion.

Create lots … and lots … and LOTS … of fear.

(Throw in “terrorism”, “flu” outbreaks, a few wars, and a global financial crisis or two for good measure)

Get the national governments’ politicians on board the Great Global Warming Hoax.

Then … begin to pull the intellectual rug out from under them. All of them. Our leaders. Our authorities. Our “experts”. Our (more or less) trusted, familiar institutions.

(Recall the ClimateGate email “hack”, pre-Copenhagen)

Slowly but surely leaving the masses confused, angry, strongly distrusting of all “sides” in their national governments … and looking for a Saviour.

This morning (just after midnight, AEDT) it was brought to my notice (h/t Twitter follower AxeCO2Tax ) that there has just been a new release of Climategate emails, announced via The Air Vent:

It happened again.  I woke up to find a link from FOIA.org on a thread.   Thousands of emails unlocked with 220,000 more hidden behind a password.  Despite the smaller size of the Air Vent due to my lack of time, there were twenty five downloads before I saw it once.  As before, there are some  very nice quotes and clarifications from the consensus.  Below is a guest post in the form of a readme file from the FOIA.org group. – Jeff

Doubtless hundreds around the world are already trawling through the emails and documents. And no doubt lots of interesting (ie, damaging) info will already be available by the time you rise this morning.

Since the joy of slumber is calling me too, following is a cut ‘n paste of the ReadMe.txt file accompanying the 176Mb zip file download (allegedly virus checked by several), to whet your appetite (bold added):

/// FOIA 2011 — Background and Context ///

“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”

“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”

“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.

“Poverty is a death sentence.”

“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”

Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on hiding the decline.

This archive contains some 5.000 emails picked from keyword searches. A few remarks and redactions are marked with triple brackets.

The rest, some 220.000, are encrypted for various reasons. We are not planning to publicly release the passphrase.

We could not read every one, but tried to cover the most relevant topics such as…

/// The IPCC Process ///

Thorne/MetO:

Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary […]

Thorne:

I also think the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run.

Carter:

It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions are made at the eleventh hour by a select core group.

Wigley:

Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive […] there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC […]

Overpeck:

The trick may be to decide on the main message and use that to guid[e] what’s included and what is left out.

Overpeck:

I agree w/ Susan [Solomon] that we should try to put more in the bullet about “Subsequent evidence” […] Need to convince readers that there really has been an increase in knowledge – more evidence. What is it?

Wanner/NCCR:

In my [IPCC-TAR] review […] I crit[i]cized […] the Mann hockey[s]tick […] My review was classified “unsignificant” even I inquired several times. Now the internationally well known newspaper SPIEGEL got the information about these early statements because I expressed my opinion in several talks, mainly in Germany, in 2002 and 2003. I just refused to give an exclusive interview to SPIEGEL because I will not cause damage for climate science.

Coe:

Hence the AR4 Section 2.7.1.1.2 dismissal of the ACRIM composite to be instrumental rather than solar in origin is a bit controversial. Similarly IPCC in their discussion on solar RF since the Maunder Minimum are very dependent on the paper by Wang et al (which I have been unable to access) in the decision to reduce the solar RF significantly despite the many papers to the contrary in the ISSI workshop. All this leaves the IPCC almost entirely dependent on CO2 for the explanation of current global temperatures as in Fig 2.23. since methane CFCs and aerosols are not increasing.

Briffa:

I find myself in the strange position of being very skeptical of the quality of all present reconstructions, yet sounding like a pro greenhouse zealot here!

Jones:

I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show warming.

Trenberth:

[…] opposing some things said by people like Chris Landsea who has said all the stuff going on is natural variability. In addition to the 4 hurricanes hitting Florida, there has been a record number hit Japan 10?? and I saw a report saying Japanese scientists had linked this to global warming. […] I am leaning toward the idea of getting a box on changes in hurricanes, perhaps written by a Japanese.

Jones:

We can put a note in that something will be there in the next draft, or Kevin or I will write something – it depends on whether and what we get from Japan.

Jones:

Kevin, Seems that this potential Nature paper may be worth citing, if it does say that GW is having an effect on TC activity.

Jones:

Getting people we know and trust [into IPCC] is vital – hence my comment about the tornadoes group.

Jones:

Useful ones [for IPCC] might be Baldwin, Benestad (written on the solar/cloud issue – on the right side, i.e anti-Svensmark), Bohm, Brown, Christy (will be have to involve him ?)

Stott/MetO:

My most immediate concern is to whether to leave this statement [“probably the warmest of the last millennium”] in or whether I should remove it in the anticipation that by the time of the 4th Assessment Report we’ll have withdrawn this statement – Chris Folland at least seems to think this is possible.

/// Communicating Climate Change ///

Humphrey/DEFRA:

I can’t overstate the HUGE amount of political interest in the project as a message that the Government can give on climate change to help them tell their story. They want the story to be a very strong one and don’t want to be made to look foolish.

Fox/Environment Agency:

if we loose the chance to make climate change a reality to people in the regions we will have missed a major trick in REGIS.

Adams:

Somehow we have to leave the[m] thinking OK, climate change is extremely complicated, BUT I accept the dominant view that people are affecting it, and that impacts produces risk that needs careful and urgent attention.

Lorenzoni:

I agree with the importance of extreme events as foci for public and governmental opinion […] ‘climate change’ needs to be present in people’s daily lives. They should be reminded that it is a continuously occurring and evolving phenomenon

Jones:

We don’t really want the bullshit and optimistic stuff that Michael has written […] We’ll have to cut out some of his stuff.

Mann:

the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what the site [Real Climate] is about.

Ashton/co2.org:

Having established scale and urgency, the political challenge is then to turn this from an argument about the cost of cutting emissions – bad politics – to one about the value of a stable climate – much better politics. […] the most valuable thing to do is to tell the story about abrupt change as vividly as possible

Kelly:

the current commitments, even with some strengthening, are little different from what would have happened without a climate treaty. […] the way to pitch the analysis is to argue that precautionary action must be taken now to protect reserves etc against the inevitable

Singer/WWF:

we as an NGO working on climate policy need such a document pretty soon for the public and for informed decision makers in order to get a) a debate started and b) in order to get into the media the context between climate extremes/desasters/costs and finally the link between weather extremes and energy

Torok/CSIRO:

[…] idea of looking at the implications of climate change for what he termed “global icons” […] One of these suggested icons was the Great Barrier Reef […] It also became apparent that there was always a local “reason” for the destruction – cyclones, starfish, fertilizers […] A perception of an “unchanging” environment leads people to generate local explanations for coral loss based on transient phenomena, while not acknowledging the possibility of systematic damage from long-term climatic/environmental change […] Such a project could do a lot to raise awareness of threats to the reef from climate change

Minns/Tyndall Centre:

In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public relations problem with the media

Kjellen:

I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global warming

Pierrehumbert:

What kind of circulation change could lock Europe into deadly summer heat waves like that of last summer? That’s the sort of thing we need to think about.

/// The Medieval Warm Period ///

Pollack:

But it will be very difficult to make the MWP go away in Greenland.

Rahmstorf:

You chose to depict the one based on C14 solar data, which kind of stands out in Medieval times. It would be much nicer to show the version driven by Be10 solar forcing

Cook:

A growing body of evidence clearly shows [2008] that hydroclimatic variability during the putative MWP (more appropriately and inclusively called the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” or MCA period) was more regionally extreme (mainly in terms of the frequency and duration of megadroughts) than anything we have seen in the 20th century, except perhaps for the Sahel. So in certain ways the MCA period may have been more climatically extreme than in modern times.

/// The Settled Science ///

Warren:

The results for 400 ppm stabilization look odd in many cases […] As it stands we’ll have to delete the results from the paper if it is to be published.

Wils:

[2007] What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably […]

Wilson:

Although I agree that GHGs are important in the 19th/20th century (especially since the 1970s), if the weighting of solar forcing was stronger in the models, surely this would diminish the significance of GHGs. […] it seems to me that by weighting the solar irradiance more strongly in the models, then much of the 19th to mid 20th century warming can be explained from the sun alone.

Hoskins:

If the tropical near surface specific humidity over tropical land has not gone up (Fig 5) presumably that could explain why the expected amplification of the warming in the tropics with height has not really been detected.

Jenkins/MetO:

would you agree that there is no convincing evidence for kilimanjaro glacier melt being due to recent warming (let alone man-made warming)?

Jones:

[tropical glaciers] There is a small problem though with their retreat. They have retreated a lot in the last 20 years yet the MSU2LT data would suggest that temperatures haven’t increased at these levels.

Jones:

There shouldn’t be someone else at UEA with different views [from “recent extreme weather is due to global warming”] – at least not a climatologist.

Crowley:

I am not convinced that the “truth” is always worth reaching if it is at the cost of damaged personal relationships

Briffa:

Also there is much published evidence for Europe (and France in particular) of increasing net primary productivity in natural and managed woodlands that may be associated either with nitrogen or increasing CO2 or both. Contrast this with the still controversial question of large-scale acid-rain-related forest decline? To what extent is this issue now generally considered urgent, or even real?

Crowley:

Phil, thanks for your thoughts – guarantee there will be no dirty laundry in the open.

Steig:

He’s skeptical that the warming is as great as we show in East Antarctica — he thinks the “right” answer is more like our detrended results in the supplementary text. I cannot argue he is wrong.

Jones:

This will reduce the 1940-1970 cooling in NH temps. Explaining the cooling with sulphates won’t be quite as necessary.

Haimberger:

It is interesting to see the lower tropospheric warming minimum in the tropics in all three plots, which I cannot explain. I believe it is spurious but it is remarkably robust against my adjustment efforts.

Klein/LLNL:

Does anybody have an explanation why there is a relative minimum (and some negative trends) between 500 and 700 hPa? No models with significant surface warming do this

Osborn:

This is an excellent idea, Mike, IN PRINCIPLE at least. In practise, however, it raises some interesting results […] the analysis will not likely lie near to the middle of the cloud of published series and explaining the reasons behindthis etc. will obscure the message of a short EOS piece.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute:

In Norway and Spitsbergen, it is possible to explain most of the warming after the 1960s by changes in the atmospheric circulation. The warming prior to 1940 cannot be explained in this way.

/// The Urban Heat Effect ///

Jenkins/MetO:

By coincidence I also got recently a paper from Rob which says “London’s UHI has indeed become more intense since the 1960s esp during spring and summer”.

Jones:

I think the urban-related warming should be smaller than this, but I can’t think of a good way to argue this. I am hopeful of finding something in the data that makes by their Figure 3.

Rean:

[…] we found the [urban warming] effect is pretty big in the areas we analyzed. This is a little different from the result you obtained in 1990. […] We have published a few of papers on this topic in Chinese. Unfortunately, when we sent our comments to the IPCC AR4, they were mostly rejected.

Wigley:

there are some nitpicky jerks who have criticized the Jones et al. data sets — we don’t want one of those [EPRI/California Energy Commission meeting].

Jones:

The jerk you mention was called Good(e)rich who found urban warming at all Californian sites.

Jones:

I think China is one of the few places that are affected [urban heat]. The paper shows that London and Vienna (and also New York) are not affected in the
20th century.

Jones:

[…] every effort has been made to use data that are either rural and/or where the urbanization effect has been removed as well as possible by statistical means. There are 3 groups that have done this independently (CRU, NOAA and GISS), and they end up with essentially the same results. […] Furthermore, the oceans have warmed at a rate consistent with the land. There is no urban effect there.

/// Temperature Reconstructions ///

Wilson:

any method that incorporates all forms of uncertainty and error will undoubtedly result in reconstructions with wider error bars than we currently have. These many be more honest, but may not be too helpful for model comparison attribution studies. We need to be careful with the wording I think.

Jones:

what he [Zwiers] has done comes to a different conclusion than Caspar and Gene! I reckon this can be saved by careful wording.

Mitchell/MetO

Is the PCA approach robust? Are the results statistically significant? It seems to me that in the case of MBH the answer in each is no

Wilson:

I thought I’d play around with some randomly generated time-series and see if I could ‘reconstruct’ northern hemisphere temperatures. […] The reconstructions clearly show a ‘hockey-stick’ trend. I guess this is precisely the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about.

Bradley:

I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.

Osborn:

Because how can we be critical of Crowley for throwing out 40-years in the middle of his calibration, when we’re throwing out all post-1960 data ‘cos the MXD has a non-temperature signal in it, and also all pre-1881 or pre-1871 data ‘cos the temperature data may have a non-temperature signal in it!

Esper:

Now, you Keith complain about the way we introduced our result, while saying it is an important one. […] the IPCC curve needs to be improved according to missing long-term declining trends/signals, which were removed (by dendrochronologists!) before Mann merged the local records together. So, why don’t you want to let the result into science?

Cook:

I am afraid that Mike is defending something that increasingly can not be defended. He is investing too much personal stuff in this and not letting the science move ahead.

Cook:

One problem is that he [Mann] will be using the RegEM method, which provides no better diagnostics (e.g. betas) than his original method. So we will still not know where his estimates are coming from.

/// Science and Religion ///

Wigley:

I heard that Zichichi has links with the Vatican. A number of other greenhouse skeptics have extreme religious views.

Houghton [MetO, IPCC co-chair]

[…] we dont take seriously enough our God-given responsibility to care for the Earth […] 500 million people are expected to watch The Day After Tomorrow. We must pray that they pick up that message.

TBI – Don’t ever doubt again that movies, TV, “entertainment”, are all used for mass perception management (propaganda). Please review my post this past Sunday, “A Day Of Rest For Your Mind”:

Hulme:

My work is as Director of the national centre for climate change research, a job which requires me to translate my Christian belief about stewardship of God’s planet into research and action.

Hulme:

He [another Met scientist] is a Christian and would talk authoritatively about the state of climate science from the sort of standpoint you are wanting.

/// Climate Models ///

Watson/UEA:

I’d agree probably 10 years away to go from weather forecasting to ~ annual scale. But the “big climate picture” includes ocean feedbacks on all time scales, carbon and other elemental cycles, etc. and it has to be several decades before that is sorted out I would think. So I would guess that it will not be models or theory, but observation that will provide the answer to the question of how the climate will change in many decades time.

Shukla/IGES:

[“Future of the IPCC”, 2008] It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.

Lanzante/NOAA:

While perhaps one could designate some subset of models as being poorer in a lot of areas, there probably never will be a single universally superior model or set of models. We should keep in mind that the climate system is complex, so that it is difficult, if not impossible to define a metric that captures the breath of physical processes relevant to even a narrow area of focus.

Santer:

there is no individual model that does well in all of the SST and water vapor tests we’ve applied.

Barnett:

[IPCC AR5 models] clearly, some tuning or very good luck involved. I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this much longer

Hegerl:

[IPCC AR5 models]
So using the 20th c for tuning is just doing what some people have long suspected us of doing […] and what the nonpublished diagram from NCAR showing correlation between aerosol forcing and sensitivity also suggested.

Jones:

Basic problem is that all models are wrong – not got enough middle and low level clouds.

Jones:

GKSS is just one model and it is a model, so there is no need for it to be correct.

/// The Cause ///

Mann:

By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

Mann:

They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a bit.

Mann:

I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s doing, but its not helping the cause

Berger:

Phil,
Many thanks for your paper and congratulations for reviving the global warming.

Jones:

[on temperature data adjustments] Upshot is that their trend will increase

Jones:

[to Hansen] Keep up the good work! […] Even though it’s been a mild winter in the UK, much of the rest of the world seems coolish – expected though given the La Nina. Roll on the next El Nino!

Schneider:

Even though I am virtually certain we shall lose on McCain-Lieberman, they are forcing Senators to go on record for for against sensible climate policy

/// Freedom of Information ///

Jones:

I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process

Briffa:

UEA does not hold the very vast majority of mine [potentially FOIable emails] anyway which I copied onto private storage after the completion of the IPCC task.

Osborn:

Keith and I have just searched through our emails for anything containing “David Holland”. Everything we found was cc’d to you and/or Dave Palmer, which you’ll already have.

McGarvie/UEA Director of Faculty Administration:

As we are testing EIR with the other climate audit org request relating to communications with other academic colleagues, I think that we would weaken that case if we supplied the information in this case. So I would suggest that we decline this one (at the very end of the time period)

Jones:

[FOI, temperature data] Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden. I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.

Don’t forget what I wrote barely 24 hours ago.

Do not be naïve.

As exciting and pleasing as these damning new revelations are (if you’re an AGW sceptic) … remain sceptical.

Very sceptical.

Watch for a marked increase in those sentiments and attitudes that I intimated would occur in the broader community (especially amongst the vast masses of “believers”) as a result of the Great Global Warming Hoax (conveniently?) having the rug pulled out from under it.

Confusion.

Anger.

(Even greater) Distrust.

Directed towards our politicians, our institutions, our “experts”, our system of governance.

If we see that occurring, then be forewarned.

The collapse of the Global Warming Hoax may well turn out to be a pyrrhic victory.

We Will Not Forget This Betrayal

8 Nov

Senator Joyce’s speech in the Senate today, to the Orwellian-titled Clean Energy Future bills.

Bills.

How apropos.

Enjoy the fire and brimstone (h/t to a special, anonymous source, who knows who they are):

Senator JOYCE (Queensland—Leader of The Nationals in the Senate) (11:20): Thank you very much, chair.

(Brown was trying to shut him down but it didn’t work …)

Senator Bob Brown: Mr Chair, I rise on a point of order. You know exactly what is happening here, which is that—

The CHAIRMAN: I have recognised a party leader, and that is in tradition with how the Senate has operated in the past. Senator Joyce is a party leader. He has the call over Senator Milne.

Senator Bob Brown: Yes. Given that recognition you have given, I ask you to ask the chair if that ruling by you is in order.

The CHAIRMAN: is practice and it is already documented by the Standing Committee on Procedure. Senator Joyce, you have the call. There is no point of order.

Senator JOYCE: It is a very sad day when Al Gore has more effect on the Prime Minister of Australia than the Australian voter. It is a very sad day when we have to cease this debate because the Greens have to go to Durban, where we now find out Leonardo DiCaprio will be there with Angelina Jolie, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bono. It is a very sad day when these people are more important than the people of Blacktown, the people of Ipswich, the people of the suburbs and the people of the regions. It is a sad day when we introduce a new, broad based consumption tax delivered to every house whether they like it or not, paid on the price of the heater that keeps them warm, paid on the price of the air conditioner that keeps them cool, paid on the food that sustains them.

It is a very sad day when we bring in a broad-based consumption tax which basically ignores the working families of this nation in favour of a conceit and a frolic. The biggest beneficiaries of this tax will be the big banks through the commissions* they will make on the future trading scheme over the will of working families and due to the actions of the Greens and the Labor Party, who have completely deserted their principles because they have now evolved into a higher being which lives in contempt of the Australian people.

This legislation is the height of foolishness for this nation, which as we speak is a mere $32 billion away from our next debt ceiling. When our nation’s credit card is presented, the attendant will say, ‘Transaction declined; please go see your bank.’ It is a very sad day when we start progressing down a path of reorganising our nation and our economy on account of a colourless, odourless gas. It is the height of foolishness

It is a very sad day when cheap power, one of our greatest competitive advantages, is given up. We have a choice here between cheap power and cheap wages; they have chosen cheap wages. They are opening the door so that those who compete against us can take away what remnants we have of a manufacturing industry. They will do it because they do not care. They have evolved into a higher organism; they do not care anymore. It is all theatrics—the theatrics of Bono, the theatrics of Schwarzenegger, the theatrics of Angelina Jolie and the theatrics of the Greens. That is what it is all about.

It is a very sad day when the weatherboard and irons and the bricks and tiles of the suburbs are subjugated to the will of the big banks. It is a very sad day when the Australian people find that they have been misled by a warrant which was made to them and on which they cast their vote—a warrant that said quite explicitly that there would be no carbon tax—and when the office of the Prime Minister is stymied and sullied and basically cast into the mud because of the will of a disparate corner of the chamber that has now, like a praetorian guard inside the Labor Party, taken control.

It is a very sad day when the minister responsible for the passage of this legislation is incapable of giving answers to any of the questions I ask because it does not matter—’you don’t need an answer anymore’; this is all about allowing Senator Brown and these people to have their time at Durban. It is absolutely absurd to believe that this legislation will do anything to the temperature of the globe. Nothing is going to happen to the temperature of the globe because of this legislation; it will stay precisely on the course that it is on now. Whether the temperature is going up, down or sideways, this legislation will make no difference. People will be poorer—that will definitely happen—but this legislation will do nothing for the climate, even according to the comparative analysis.

It is absurd to think that, with the passage of this legislation, Hu Jintao in China will suddenly wake up and say: ‘I’ve seen the light! I’m now going to participate in a carbon tax like Australia. I’m going to follow that lemming off the cliff.’ It is absolutely absurd to think that Manmohan Singh in India is saying to the Indian people, ‘No—you can stay on bikes; you can keep your standard of living so you can follow Australia.’ Is absurd to think that Barack Obama is tossing and turning in the middle of the night worrying about what our position is. We are doing this only to ourselves. It is the ultimate act of self indulgence.

The Labor Party have deserted their principles. The Labor Party have deserted the working families of Australia. The Labor Party should remind themselves of one thing: it is totally absurd for them to believe that the Australian people will not remember this at the next election. At the next election, they will be waiting for you. I have seen this before in recent political history. If you think they have forgotten, fool is you. They will remember it, and we will make certain that every day we come and present this argument to you. Between now and the next election will not be a reprieve; you will be constantly reminded of the deceit that each one of you have shown the Australian people.

It was not just Julia Gillard who got elected on a false promise. It is not just Julia Gillard who has let the Australian people down but every person who made warrant to the electorate that they were part of a government which would not bring in a carbon tax. Each one of them has gone to the electorate and basically not told the truth. Now, apparently, we believe in this chamber that it is not important to tell the truth; it is not important to be clear about key policy objectives prior to an election. How did we get to this position?

What was the debate that brought this legislation about? Why did you desert not only the principles of your own party but also the principles of the whole of the Australian people? Why do you think that there is that palpable frustration—that white fury—which will descend on you because of the decisions you have made? Are the Australian Greens going to save the Australian Labor Party the next election? No, they will not; they will crucify you at the next election. You have decided to walk away from faith, family and the Labor Party in order to allow the Australian Greens to run the agenda.

This legislation works on one false premise: you believe that carbon, as it is at the moment, is free—you believe that people get their power, their food and their fuel for free. People cannot afford things as it is now—they are struggling as it is now; life is hard enough as it is now—yet you have decided to desert them. You have decided to desert the people of Blacktown, to desert the people of Seven Hills, to desert the people of Ipswich, to desert the people of Rockhampton. You have deserted them for whom? You have deserted them for Dr Bob Brown, Al Gore, Angelina Jolie and Leonardo DiCaprio—and Tony Windsor, as a part-architect of this legislation, obviously also holds responsibility. The Australian people will not forget this. You have given us an arrow in our quiver which we will use against you time and time again.

This is a very, very depressing day for Australia, and you watch at the end. The end of this will show absolutely, in cast iron, how out of touch this is. When this vote goes through you will see backslapping, hugging and a kissathon going on. What are you going to say to the person who lives with Black and Gold in their cupboard because they cannot afford the power as it is? What are you going to say to the worker who loses their job for some ridiculous concept of a green job? There are only two types of jobs in Australia. There are real jobs and cheap jobs, and you are about to give them cheap jobs and let our nation down.

* Barnaby is wrong on this vital point. The banks will make far, far more from their trade in carbon derivatives:

ANZ’s head of energy trading said the value of the derivatives carbon market would dwarf the $10 billion initially raised by the government, according to the AFR.

Learn all about the Ticking Time Bomb Hidden In The Carbon Tax.

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