Tag Archives: robert gottliebsen

Funding For Policy Scandal – Australia Is A Kleptocracy

26 Jul

Do you want to know how deep the rabbit hole goes?

h/t to Twitterer @Kmorefive for bringing the following to my attention.

From Business Spectator (emphasis added) –

An ALP funding horror

Robert Gottliebsen

If an election is held in the next few months, Australian banks will play a big role in the outcome. And unless there is a dramatic change in the fortunes of the parties, the banks will still be key players if (as is likely) the next election is two years away.

Australia has rarely seen such a banking/election event in its history and it certainly did not occur in recent elections. The looming role of the banks could force the ALP into a pre-election leadership change and in extreme situations force it to modify its carbon tax.

To understand the pivotal role of Australian banks in the funding of political parties requires a deep knowledge of how the system works.

For the most part, in the vicinity of three quarters of a major party’s funding in most elections comes from the public purse. The ‘public purse’ amounts are allocated to parties after the election in accordance with the proportion of the votes that are achieved.

But there is no forward allocation of money. The distribution of ‘public purse’ money is strictly governed by the proportion of the votes actually achieved.

ALP organisers are not looking forward to meeting with their bankers as the election nears. They are deeply apprehensive that as a result of current opinion polls, their bankers will slash the amount of election funding available to the ALP and lock it into a low vote.

Conversely, Liberal and National Party organisers believe that as a result of their opinion polling they will receive a huge increase in support from their bankers to fund unprecedented amounts of advertising and promotion.

If, theoretically, an election was to be held in a few months’ time, ALP organisers would go to their bankers and negotiate to borrow the money required to fund the campaign expecting to pay it back when they receive their ‘public purse’ money after the election. This might be the conversation:

Banker: What proportion of the votes do the opinion polls suggest you will gain?

ALP organiser: The current Nielson poll suggests we would gain 26 per cent of the primary vote but we know we will do better.

Banker: Maybe you will, but if I lend you money that represents the amount you will receive from the ‘public purse’ if you attained, say, 40 per cent of the vote, I might bankrupt the ALP if you only receive 26 per cent because you could not pay me back. That would not only give my bank a bad debt but it would be disastrous for Australian democracy.

ALP organiser: But it will be disastrous for Australian democracy if we are decimated at the polls because we have only meagre advertising money.

Banker: I am sorry but I have shareholders and I need a safety margin. I will fund your advertising on the basis that you receive 20 per cent of the votes. You will need to be much more skilled in using non-advertising promotions.

The Coalition conversations with their bankers would be the exact reverse of this.

The ALP organisers fear that the party is going to be much more dependent on union contributions than it has been in recent times. This may tend to spin the party to the left, although many unions are opposed to the carbon tax. Those unions opposed to the carbon tax may require modification before they inject ‘rescue’ money. However, if they see Tony Abbott moving to water down industrial relations legislation they may be tempted to dig deep.

In the case of the Coalition, the parties will depend less on contributions from party members and corporate supporters, assuming they maintain the current lead in the polls.

In reality, if the current opinion poll levels are maintained then it will make it very difficult for the ALP to gain the election funding to change its fortunes at the polls.

As the horror of this outcome becomes apparent to party members, they may seek to replace the prime minister with someone who might either lift the party’s ratings in the polls or who will attract more union rescue money. The ALP has its back to the wall.

There you have it.

The banksters do have a powerful, direct influence over the direction this nation goes.

Now we understand even more clearly, why a Banksters’ Glee Club comprising a clear majority bank-employed “leading” economists has been publicly barracking for the government’s carbon pricing scheme scam.

Mr Gottliebsen’s revelations on how electoral funding really works in practice are seriously troubling, in their implications for what amounts to a clear opening for the perversion of the democratic process.

And yet, I think he is (perhaps naively?) completely misunderstanding what those implications are, in terms of the most controversial public policy right now.

Quite simply, he’s reading the implications backwards.

Because I suspect that the ALP will not have much difficulty in getting the loans they want/need for their election campaign. Especially whilstever they cling to the bankster-driven “pricing carbon” policy.

And in terms of the Liberal Party, in light of the constant appeals for donations that seemingly appear in all of their public communications collateral (emails, newsletters etc), I suspect that the anti-carbon tax Abbott-led Coalition is not sitting as prettily with their bankers as Mr Gottliebsen seems to believe.

Now, to an interesting and directly related front.

If our basic contention – as implied by Mr Gottliebsen’s article – is that our political parties’ policies can be and ultimately are determined by their financial backers’ willingness to loan (or donate) to their election campaign funding, then we only see further supporting evidence for that somewhat chilling reality check in this news story about another of Green-Labor’s proposed policies (emphasis added) –

About 1800 cement industry jobs are at risk from Labor’s carbon tax and proposed new shipping rules, the federal opposition says.

Nationals leader Warren Truss says the $2 billion a year industry is facing a double whammy under the Gillard government.

He says domestic cement manufacturers could be killed off by “dirtier” imports, made cheaper under the carbon tax.

“The paradox is Australian cement production is a leader in low emission technology and any shift to imports will force global CO2 emissions to rise,” Mr Truss said in a statement.

Mr Truss said Australian cement had the world’s second lowest greenhouse gas emissions behind Japan.

“But the carbon tax will price Australia’s cleaner cement out of the market, giving the green light to our international competitors to boost their higher CO2-emitting production and flood Australia with dirty cement,” he said.

“… the Australian cement industry will be crushed by competitors who will not be paying a carbon tax.”

Mr Truss said Labor was also rewriting the Navigation Act to force businesses that ship products around Australia to use local, union-dominated vessels.

He said “unionised shipping” costs significantly more than current market rates, which would be another blow to the industry.

“Right now it costs about the same to ship cement from China to Australia as it does to ship it from Adelaide to Port Kembla,” he said.

Under the Gillard government’s sop to the maritime union, our biggest competitors in cement – China, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand – will dramatically undercut Australian suppliers on shipping costs alone.”

He said a large section of the cement manufacturing sector would not be compensated under the carbon tax plan.

The compensation package only applied to processing clinker, the first stage of making cement, he said.

“The second milling stage to make what we know as cement receives no compensation,” Mr Truss said.

So, the real reason why the Green-Labor Government has been slowly re-regulating (ie, re-unionising) the Australian economy … is because they need their money to finance their election campaign.

The lesson we must learn?

When it comes to the all-important consideration of why a politician or party really adopts the policy/s that they do, the Golden Rule always applies.

Follow The Money.

The following of which will always lead you down the rabbit hole … into the wonderland of global finance.

More honestly and accurately called, “bankstering”.

Ladies and gentlemen … we are not living in a democracy.

We are living in a kleptocracy.

What are you going to do about that?

Gottliebsen: In The Eye Of GFC Storm

30 Jun

Highly respected business commentator Robert Gottliebsen appears to agree today with what Barnaby Joyce has been saying since October last year – that the GFC is far from over.

From Business Spectator:

Despite a late US Dow index rally, last night was among the more serious sharemarket falls we have experienced since global financial crisis plunged markets in 2009.

We are well above the dismally low levels witnessed on equities markets during the crisis, but last night you could see fear in almost every corner of the world. The forces that are behind each of the fears are probably manageable, but when they occur together, as what happened last night, they triggered waves of selling, including a savaging of the Australian dollar.

And of course Gillard’s mining tax dithering is rekindling global doubts about the sovereign risk of this country which threatens to put Australia and our high house prices in the eye of the storm.

And for most Australians, the global wave of selling will be reflected in our share prices levels at June 30, which means that the value of superannuation funds will be hit on balance day. Many retirees will have their income reduced for the year ahead…

Clearly China is slowing much more rapidly than expected, and as a result the bad property loans that are in its banking portfolios will weigh down future growth.

In the past China has always managed these issues and I think it will do it again, but the markets fear there will be much more pain than had been anticipated.

Meanwhile, in Europe the big banks have been playing the stupid game of borrowing from depositors and then investing in the sovereign debts of European countries that can’t pay.

Tomorrow the banks are supposed to repay €442 billion in emergency loans but they almost certainly will have to be bailed out again. Fears of bank collapses are rife. On top of this dire outlook, Europe’s austerity measures will bring on recessions in countries ranging from Greece to the UK which will make it even harder for the banks. And the strikes in Greece will be repeated in many countries, which could make the spending cuts impossible to deliver.

In the US they are helped because in a crisis money flows to the world currency, so the US dollar rises. Nevertheless, there are still chronic housing problems so consumer confidence is depressed and the US economy is still living on the old stimulus packages. Accordingly Wall Street’s earnings estimates look too optimistic.

Barnaby is right.

Mining Tax Puts Australia On Frontline of Market Fury

21 May

Highly respected Australian economics commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, puts forward the same basic point as investment giant Goldman Sachs/JB Were in their recent note to clients – that the Rudd’s government’s mining tax is a prime cause of the dramatic collapse in the Aussie sharemarket and Aussie Dollar.

From Business Spectator:

Global stock markets are losing faith in governments to manage the escalating problems stemming from the sovereign debt situation. But it is worse than that. Bankers are also losing confidence in governments. The sharp falls in stock markets will affect business activities and will have repercussions on economies around the world.

Solvent governments such as Germany are effectively borrowing vast sums to prop up bankrupt countries like Greece and most of the other PIIGS . The bankers say it will not work. Traders are liquidating their portfolios and the shorters are selling European shares.

And whereas we should have been one of the pillars of stability in this global crisis, our crazy mining tax has caused Australia to be in the front line of the market fury.

We have already been hit by a massive bear raid and now we will hit again by the falls on Wall Street.

We need good government at this crucial point in history. Instead we have bad government, so our economic recovery will be stalled if markets keep plunging. Treasury’s optimistic budget forecasts now look as silly as its mining tax.

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