From the Sunday Telegraph (sorry, no link), Finance Writer Nick Gardner dares to say the unspeakable:
Rates To Trigger Recession
Australia is on the verge of a recession.
Economists warn the economy will almost certainly be in recession later in the year as the Reserve Bank raises rates to avoid excessive inflation.
The forecast comes as most of the domestic economy continues to shrink in the face of weak consumer spending and a record-breaking strong dollar.
The economy contracted by 1.2 per cent in the March quarter, exaggerated by damage to our iron ore and coal exports because of natural disasters. And last week the ABS released jobs data showing the economy has lost 80,000 full-time jobs in the past two months. However, we are likely to skirt a recession this month.
“Miners are now having to work double time to fill not only the orders they would normally be catering for this quarter but also the coal they did not deliver in the previous three months because of the weather disruption,” said Steve Keen, professor of economics at the University of Western Sydney.
“That is likely to produce a pronounced bounce in the volumes this quarter, so we’ll probably have mildly positive growth by the end of June.
“However, after those orders have been filled, we’ll be back to our normal levels of exports and that’s when I think we will hit the skids and our growth will turn negative again for the last six months of the year.”
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, agrees.
“It’s later in the year we have to worry, especially if the RBA raises rates. It risks bringing the entire economy outside of resources to a standstill.”
The Australian Industry Group said the manufacturing, construction, and services sectors all shrank in May. Its indices, where 50 indicates an expanding sector and below 50 a contracting sector, showed manufacturing reached 47.7, services hit 49.9, and construction hit 39.6 – its 12th straight month of contraction.
In the lead up to the recent May budget, Treasurer Wayne “Goose” Swan was loudly propagandising that the coming budget would be all about “jobs jobs jobs”. Indeed, he claimed that Labor has “created 750,000 jobs” since coming to power. No proof, of course. And noone in the lamestream media asked for any either. Or bothered to try and check if Wayne’s claim was true.
We debunked that claim here … using his own budget documents.
Wayne also claimed that the Green-Labor government will create “half a million more” “in the next two years”.
We debunked that claim here … using his own budget documents.
Now, according to the ABS, we learn that “the economy lost 80,000 full-time jobs“ in the very same two month period that he was loudly parrotting his BS, unchecked by the media and “expert” commentators.
Off to another brilliant start on that “half a million more” jobs pledge, aren’t you Wayne.
"Goose" talking jobs jobs jobs
Barnaby Is Right 
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