Archive | April, 2010

An Incredible Experience

28 Apr

Well, the KeenWalk is over. And what an incredible experience it was! I can honestly say that I have never before had the pleasure of meeting so many truly wonderful, warm-hearted, intelligent, fascinating people in one place and time.

You can find some of my thoughts about the journey – and the reasons and purpose behind it – on the KeenWalk website, along with those of other fellow travellers.

And now, after a couple days to catch up on essentials, it’s back to the “business” of debt. So much of importance has happened in world markets while I’ve been away – Goldman Sachs, Greece, the IMF, Rudd Labor’s backflip on Foreign Investment rules for property purchases – one hardly knows where to begin!

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KeenWalk To Kosciuszko

15 Apr

From today through April 23rd, I am joining Professor Steve Keen on his 230km “Keenwalk” from Parliament House to Mount Kosciuszko, in protest against Australia’s property (and debt) mania that has been driven directly by the ill-conceived policies of successive Federal Governments, the RBA, and Australia’s high risk, mortgage-loaded banking system.

Please consider joining us for an afternoon section of the walk.

If you’d care to assist a genuinely worthy cause, then please consider sponsoring Professor Keen, or indeed myself. Funds raised are supporting the wonderful charity Swags For Homeless.

On my return – hopefully still upright and with all joints intact! – I will be back here collating more news stories from around the world, showing that Barnaby Is Right.

Thanks!

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Barnaby Attacks Julia’s BER

12 Apr

Last night Senator Barnaby Joyce appeared on Channel 7’s Sunday Night program, and blasted the massive waste in Julia Gillard’s “Building The Education Revolution” program (click here for the shocking video) –

The Building Education Revolution (BER) has become the Blatant Enormous Rip-off. This is money borrowed from overseas and off other Australians that you, the taxpayer, are going to have to repay. You repay it by going to work and paying your taxes, which are then sent off to the people we owe the money to.

When the Government does not control costs on these projects you end up working a lot longer than you needed to, to pay the debt back.

It is well worth the question whether many of the BER projects stacked around school yards are needed at all.

Are they really going to make your kids better at mathematics or english? Are they going to help them learn a second language? Or are they, in many instances, just over priced trinkets?

The big black signs that are adorning the perimeters of these schools where these projects are, say that this is part of an “Economic Stimulus Package”.

Now I don’t know whether you are getting stimulated by it but you are certainly getting touched.

People have seen the Labor Government coming and they are taking them for all that they are worth.

A fool and his funds are soon parted friends. Every week our nation borrows a billion dollars extra. When you look at projects such as these, it becomes really frightening as to where the management of our nation is off to.

While travelling around the countryside and in the cities, I am shocked at how easily we have been ripped off. It appears that no one in the Government wants to ask the hard question as to whether we are getting value for money and because others know the Government are not asking the questions, the bills for these buildings go unchallenged.

Like quarter of a million dollar shade cloths over playgrounds and millions of dollars in demountables.

Local builders are asking why they did not get a better go at the major contracts, rather than having to build them second hand, as subcontractors.

P&C’s are asking why the Government did not listen to them when they said they would prefer some other form of expenditure rather than a hall. Many are saying we just didn’t need it at all and we are really worried of the debt we are getting because of this.

On a positive note, it is good to see that Australians do care about the waste of money. Australians truly understand that there is something wrong with the mindless throwing of money to the wind for the shrewd and the cunning to take advantage of. This is what happens when you do not properly control costs.

How on earth is this waste helping any body?

How will you feel about it when you are sitting back late at night stacking shelves or driving cabs or stacking bricks in real buildings for real people or shearing sheep or driving earthmoving equipment, to pay off this complete waste of money where even in the waste you have been ripped off.

Barnaby is right.

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Aussie Banks To Cut Lending, High Risk

11 Apr

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

Banks could be forced to curb sales of mortgages after a feeding frenzy on housing over the past 18 months has seen their exposure to the property market hit record levels.

Last month, BHP Billiton’s outgoing chairman and former head of the National Australia Bank, Don Argus, likened the big banks to ”giant building societies”, accusing them of neglecting business lending to chase the mortgage market.

Of the big banks, the Commonwealth has the most concentrated exposure to the property market – 65 per cent of its lending book is tied up in mortgages. For Westpac and St George combined it is 62 per cent.

ANZ and NAB, which traditionally have a bigger exposure to business lending, have pumped up their mortgage exposure – it accounts for more than 50 per cent of their Australian loans books.

Could Australia experience a property crash, just like those in the USA, UK, Ireland, Spain … in fact, like most of the Western world?

Professor Steve Keen, the only Australian economist to forecast the Global Financial Crisis, believes our property bubble must burst too. It is just a matter of time.

Thanks to the Rudd Government’s doubling of the First Home Owners Boost, tens of thousands of (mostly) younger Australians were suckered into huge mortgages when interest rates were at their lowest.  Now, with household debt levels at an all-time high, the experience of so many other nations says that our bubble will burst too.

“If you do not manage debt, debt manages you”.

Barnaby is right.

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US Banks Understating Debt

11 Apr

From AFP:

Major US banks have been masking the size of their debt, and thereby their risk levels, by temporarily lowering it just before reporting it to the public, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

The newspaper, citing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said 18 banks have understated the debt used to fund securities trades by lowering them an average of 42 percent at the end of each of the past five quarterly periods.

The banks included Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase and Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc, the Journal said.

It said the practice was legal but gave investors a skewed impression of the level of risk that financial firms are taking the vast majority of the time.

It noted that overborrowing by banks was one of the causes of the financial crisis.

Barnaby Joyce has been warning about the dangers of rising US debt since October last year.

Now we see that not only is the US Government going deeper into debt by the month.  We also learn that the Wall Street banks are fiddling the books to mask their true debt and risk levels.

Barnaby is right.

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China On ‘Treadmill To Hell’ Amid Bubble

9 Apr

From Bloomberg:

China’s property market is a bubble that may burst by as early as this year, according to hedge fund manager James Chanos.

The world’s third-biggest economy may need to keep up the pace of property investment because up to 60 percent of its gross domestic product relies on construction, said Chanos. The bubble may begin to “run its course” in late-2010 or 2011, he said in an interview on “The Charlie Rose Show” that will air on PBS and Bloomberg TV.

China is “on a treadmill to hell,” said Chanos, who said in January the nation is Dubai times a thousand. “They can’t afford to get off this heroin of property development. It is the only thing keeping the economic growth numbers growing.”

Property prices in China rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in February even after officials this year re-imposed a tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase to curb speculation and ordered banks to set aside more funds as reserves to cool lending. The boom in China’s real estate has fueled concern that China may face a collapse seen in Dubai that has hurt the ability of some of its companies to repay debt.

Since his January prediction, Chanos, the founder of Kynikos Associates Ltd, has been joined by Gloom, Doom & Boom publisher Marc Faber and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China’s property market.

Barnaby Joyce has been warning about the external threats to the Australian economy since October 2009.  With every passing month, more and more evidence coming from economies around the world – including those such as China that are vital to Australia’s economic interests – indicates that there is big trouble brewing.  While the Ken Henry-led Rudd Government slumbers on in La La Land, spending like drunken sailors, confident of an unending China boom to lift us out of debt, more and more economists abroad are predicting a China crash.

Barnaby is also the only Australian politician with the courage to publicly question the Rudd Government’s weakening of Foreign Investment laws, which have allowed foreign ‘investors’ to help spike Australia’s already unaffordable housing bubble, and put our ownership of vital national assets at risk.  Only Barnaby Joyce has had the courage to call out the Rudd Government for ‘selling the farm’, paddock by paddock.

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China Losing Control of Economy

8 Apr

From Bloomberg:

Failure to rein in local government spending could push inflation to 15 percent by 2012, said Victor Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University who spent months tallying government borrowing.

“Increasingly the choice facing the government is between inflation or bad loans,” said Shih, author of the book “Finance and Factions in China,” who teaches political science at the university in Evanston, Illinois. “The only mechanism for controlling inflation in China is credit restriction, but if they use that, this show is over — a gigantic wave of bad loans will appear on banks’ balance sheets.”

Attempts to curb borrowing by raising interest rates would boost debt-servicing costs for local governments. At the same time, tightening credit may stall projects, triggering “a build-up of bad loans,” the Basel, Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements said in a quarterly report in December.

Sun Mingchun, an economist with Nomura in Hong Kong, estimates local governments have proposed projects with a value of more than 20 trillion yuan since the stimulus package was announced in November 2008.

Should the boom end in a property-market collapse, even those stocks tied to the local government projects will be affected along with most other industries, said Shanghai-based independent economist Andy Xie, formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist.

“Corporate profits are very much driven by the property sector,” said Xie. “The largest sectors will be hit hard, especially banks and insurance companies.”

A gauge of property stocks has fallen more than 6 percent this year after more than doubling in 2009 as the government takes steps to cool rising prices, including raising the deposit requirement to 20 percent of the minimum price of auctioned land. Property sales were equivalent to 13 percent of gross domestic product last year.

“Policy makers may need to start thinking about how to handle the aftermath of the bust,” said Nomura’s Sun.

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Greek Debt Woes Rising

8 Apr

From the Associated Press:

European stock markets fell Wednesday amid mounting concerns about Greece’s debt crisis while U.S. shares drifted lower as the Dow Jones industrial average fell short of breaking above 11,000.

Once again, Greece took center stage as investors continued to fret about the country’s ability to pay off its debts — the ten-year spread between Greek and Germany bond yields stood at 4 percentage points, having earlier hit 4.12 percent, its highest level since the euro was introduced in 1999. The spread is also way up on the 3 percent level when the EU agreed on an aid program that would involve the International Monetary Fund.

“All of this puts a question mark over longer term debt sustainability as well as the threat of contagion elsewhere in the eurozone,” said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

With fiscal retrenchment due in Greece, as well as Portugal and Spain, there are also mounting concerns that the debt crisis will weigh on eurozone economic growth for a long time yet, particularly as lower demand for German goods could squeeze the eurozone’s biggest economy.

“This does not look like a sensible strategy and will likely end up in economic slump for the eurozone generally alongside the risk of deflation,” said Mackinnon.

Worries about the strength of the eurozone economy were stoked further on Wednesday with the news that economic growth ground to a halt in the last three months of 2009 as output stagnated in Germany and contracted once again in Italy.

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Yields On Aussie Bonds Rising

8 Apr

And so it begins.

Have we just heard the ‘canary in the coalmine’ of government debt pause its happy singing?  When the government finds it has to start offering higher yields in order to sell its longer-dated sovereign bonds, you know that the market is beginning to smell inflation… and/or, losing faith in the government’s ability to pay up on maturity.

From The Australian:

The federal government drew solid demand today for an auction of new July 2022 bonds, its longest nominal debt on issue, but had to pay an attractive premium to sell the bonds.

In the latest extension of its yield curve, the Australian Office of Financial Management sold $1.0 billion of 5.75 per cent July 2022 bonds with a weighted average yield of 5.9642 per cent.

“The Commonwealth had to pay up to get good demand,” Westpac strategist Damien McColough said, noting good interest from buyers on yields closer to the 6.0 per cent level.

Over the past two months, the yield on the more common 10-year Australian Government bonds has risen from 5.48% to 5.85%.

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China’s Debt Bubble: When Will The Ponzi Unravel?

6 Apr

From Naked Capitalism via Roubini Global Economics:

Independent Strategy’s latest report, “China’s credit bubble: the missing piece in the jigsaw” makes a persuasive case that China’s debt fueled growth model is due for a hard landing, but the timing is uncertain, since the debt is funded internally.

China is barely past an episode of dealing with banks chock full of bad loans (there were debates among Western analysts in 2002 and 2003 as to how bad the damage was and whether the remedies were sufficient). On a more fundamental level, China has copied the Japanese mercantilist development model pretty much wholesale. It arguably hit the wall with the 1985 Plaza accord, when the US found the continued trade deficits unacceptable and succeed in organizing a G5 intervention to drive up the yen (that succeeded too well, the yen overshot, leading to the Louvre accord to push up the greenback). Japan’s central bank lowered interest rates to stoke asset prices in the hopes that the wealth effect would produce higher domestic consumption and offset the effect of the fall in exports.

We all know how that movie ended…

The report forecasts a large decline in growth rates, as well as land and real estate prices, since LGFVs [Local Government Financing Vehicles] will need to liquidate holdings to try to pay off non-performing loans.

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