Tag Archives: wayne swan

Markets Chief: No Escape For Australia

4 Mar

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

Australia is unlikely to avoid an imminent economic downturn caused by excessive government debt, a top European markets regulator says.

”Prepare for a very difficult economic time, which you will not be able to escape,” Netherlands Authority for Financial Markets chairman Hans Hoogervorsttold the Australian Securities and Investment Commission summer school yesterday.

The debt taken on by governments around the world to bail out banks and stimulate domestic economies would take ”a tremendous toll on the world economy for a long time to come”, he said.

”The problem is that there is now too much on the shoulders of government. They have basically taken on all the problems caused by the financial crisis, with the effect that most of them are in really, truly horrible budgetary shape.”

He said the only way out was for the public and private sectors to tighten spending and repay the debt.

”The problems are so serious there are no easy ways out any more,” he said. ”It is simply inevitable that economic growth for a long period will be very meagre.” And Australia’s economic luck during the financial crisis would run out, he said, because the stimulus programs running in Asian countries, which had fuelled demand for Australian resources, could not last forever.

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Labor: Hide The Increase

3 Mar

Australia’s much-heralded “low” debt-to-GDP ratio statistic appears to be a fraud. Deliberately “adjusted” by the Rudd Government, in order to make their massive debt-funded spending binge appear less than it is.

In the 2009-10 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the government refers to a change in the methodology used to calculate GDP  for the previous 2008-09 year, and for the historical data series.  This change results in a “substantial increase” in the published level of GDP.

The flow-on result from this change is obvious. The government’s spending, as a percentage of that artificially increased GDP figure, will appear lower than if the change had not been made.

And because all of its spending is being done using borrowed money, the debt-to-GDP figure will also appear lower too. Perfect cover for a government that needs to defend itself from Opposition attacks, and smooth over public fears, about rising government debt.

But there’s more.

In the 2009-10 MYEFO, the Rudd Government changed the methodology used to “adjust” government spending for inflation. The result is that the government’s “real” spending growth % figure is artificially reduced… by a whopping 30.1% for 2009-10.

How can we know this?

In the fine print – isn’t it always? – on the Rudd Government’s Budget 2009-10 MYEFO website, we read:

…

Continue reading ‘Labor: Hide The Increase’

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Stutchbury Sees The Angel Too

28 Feb

Brandishing the headline “Chinese Can Fund Our Boom”, The Australian economics editor Michael Stutchbury sees that Chinese cyclical angel descending from heaven too… and joins in the smearing of Barnaby Joyce:

The method and madness of Barnaby Joyce won’t lie down because it strikes at the heart of Australia’s economic risks and opportunities amid the mother of all mining booms…

The opposition finance spokesman has tweaked his reckless claim that Australia could default on its sovereign debt…

His incoherence invites ridicule. “He does not have a clue what he is talking about,” Wayne Swan responded, mocking Joyce’s reference to “net debt gross, public and private”. The Nationals senator was saying “ridiculous, stupid and damaging” things about Australia’s debt position. Swan’s Treasury head Ken Henry has accused Joyce to his face of “a gross oversimplification of economic understanding”.

Doesn’t have a clue, ‘eh Wayne?  Remind us again how your Bachelor of Arts (thence career political hack) compares with Barnaby’s qualifications?

As for Ken Henry’s arrogant comments, perhaps Mr Stutchbury might care to do a little research. He might learn just how many international economists directly refute Henry’s confident visions of a multi-decade China Miracle.

Mr Stutchbury goes on to imply that Barnaby poses a threat to that Chinese angel descending, thanks to his warnings about Australia’s levels of debt:

So Joyce now begins with private debt, particularly Australia’s gross foreign debt of $1.2 trillion, or about 100 per cent of gross domestic product.

At $638bn or 47 per cent of GDP, Australia’s net foreign debt is one of the highest in the developed world and much higher than in 1986 when Paul Keating warned that Australia could become a banana republic.

You’d think that fact might concern Mr Stutchbury. Not at all. Immediately comes the justification:

…

Continue reading ‘Stutchbury Sees The Angel Too’

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Can We Even Pay The Interest?

27 Feb

Estimated (E), Projected (P)

It seems that every man and his dog… except Barnaby Joyce… happily takes for granted the popular claim that Australia’s sovereign debt levels are nothing to worry about.  But have you ever stopped to think about whether we really can pay back the debt?

I made the chart above using the data from the Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) 2009-10 Budget statements. It shows Treasury Secretary Ken Henry’s projected Interest on debt for this financial year, and the following three years. Those are interest-only repayments that Kevin Rudd incurred, and now we-the-taxpayers have to pay.

Doesn’t look too bad, you say?  An Interest bill starting at $8.26 Billion for 2009-10, rising to $15.28 Billion for 2012-13? Surely your $900 “bonus” cheque, and your dodgy roof insulation from the Fairy Ruddfather, make paying this Interest bill worthwhile?

To put it into perspective, I’ve put together another chart (below).  It shows the Australian Government headline Surplus / Deficits going back to 1996, and adds in the projected Interest on debt (in blue) from the above chart. Simply click on the chart to enlarge –

As you can see, Ken Henry’s projected Interest on debt alone is greater than many of the 12 years of Howard Government surpluses. And they came during an unprecedented mining boom.

One other thing. Can anyone really believe Ken Henry’s projections?  This is a man who could not see the GFC coming.  And even now, he is confidently predicting a “Golden Age” of “unprecedented prosperity” for Australia, one that could “stretch to 2050”. All thanks to his belief in a 4o year continuous boom in China.  He is clearly ignorant of the fact that more and more leading international economists… including some who did predict the GFC… are now predicting that China is a bubble that will bust within ten years.

Paying back the projected Interest-only will obviously be a big challenge. So try to imagine how we are ever going to pay back the principal too.

Barnaby Joyce has recently stated that it would take eight (8) consecutive years of $19 Billion surpluses to bring the budget back to earth.  As you can see from the chart above, the Howard Government achieved a budget surplus that big only 3 times… in 12 years.

It is easy to see why Barnaby is so concerned about our ever-rising debt under Rudd Labor.

Because quite simply, we can not pay it back.

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No, We Cannot Pay Our Debt

26 Feb

Here’s another picture that tells a thousand words.

Yesterday Barnaby wrote in The Australian about the annual Budget surpluses needed to pay back Labor’s ever rising debt ($1 Billion more today alone; another $1.8 Billion next week):

Let’s talk about the abundance of faith exhibited by Labor when it tells us of the eight consecutive $19bn surpluses that are required to bring the budget back into orbit when the continued stresses on the international economy are clear and evident, especially in Europe.

On the ABC’s Q&A program on Feb 15th, Barnaby pointed out that Labor’s “plan” to return the Budget to surplus is pure fantasy:

We have always got the view that you should try and reduce tax but the first thing, without harping on it, we’ve got to deal with the debt and because they keep racking up debt, that takes away our capacity to reduce your tax and there’s no other way around it. You either increase your revenues, decrease your costs – they talk about productivity and sort of the cyclical angel descending from heaven and making everything better…

Well, just what is the likelihood of that cyclical angel descending?  And even if it does, can it produce eight consecutive surpluses of $19 Billion?

Decide for yourself.

Below is a chart of Australian Government Budget surplus / deficits, dating back to the beginning of the Howard Government. Source is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statistics section. Click on the chart to enlarge –

This country has never seen anything like eight consecutive years of $19 Billion surpluses. In fact, the Howard Government achieved it just 3 times… in 12 years… during an unprecedented mining boom.

Barnaby is right.

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Barnaby vs Tanner vs Swan

25 Feb

Ever wonder how Barnaby’s economic qualifications stack up against Lindsay Tanner’s? Or against Wayne Swan’s, for that matter?

You might be surprised.

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