Tag Archives: wayne swan

Behold, Wayne’s Große Lüge

4 May

Treasurer Wayne Swan is busily preparing hearts and minds for his fourth consecutive Budget … deficit.  A deficit that’s going to be epic.

Oops.

Time to wave a big red herring:

We created 750,000 jobs since we came to office when other nations shed millions of jobs…

Let’s take a bite out of his red herring.  Is the jobs claim true?

Wayne’s former colleague Lindsay Tanner –  recently confessed expert in the “dark arts” of lying with numbers– has given us this timely warning:

“… whenever a politician cites… figures to show what a fine job he or she is doing, examine the fine print very carefully.”

Ok. Let’s do that.

If it’s true that Labor has created 750,000 jobs since coming to power, one would think this “fact” might be reflected in some official statistics.  Say, in the official government Final Budget Outcome reports.

According to the 2007-08 Final Budget Outcome, the last year of the Howard Government brought in $126.135 Billion in Total individuals and other withholding taxation:

Source: Final Budget Outcome 2007-08 | Part One, Table 2: Australian Government general government sector revenue

Now, if Labor really has created 750,000 jobs since they came to office, then you’d expect the Total individuals and other withholding taxation for last year (2009-10) to be a lot higher than in 2007-08, right?

After all, even if these “750,000 jobs” were all only modestly paid jobs – say, $35K p.a. – then you would expect the government should have received around 750,000 x $4,350 = $3.26 Billion more individual income tax revenue than in 2007-08 … right?

Wrong.

According to the 2009-10 Final Budget Outcome, the Labor Government brought in $3.31 Billion less from individual income taxes last year than in 2007-08:

Final Budget Outcome 2009-10 | Part Two, Table 8, Note 3: Taxation revenue by type

There you have it.

In Wayne’s World, 750,000 jobs created means $3.31 Billion less income tax revenue.

Who knew?

Rather than adding to Government revenue, “job creation” actually loses money.

On the eve of Budget 2011 … and a fourth consecutive mega-deficit … this is Wayne’s headline argument for Labor’s record in economic management.

“750,000 jobs created”.

But wait … there’s more!

“Half a million more”. “In the next two years”.

Be-holed, Wayne’s Große Lüge.

If you are going to lie, make it a Big Lie. And repeat it often.

Everyone will believe you because –

“They’re government statis…. they’re facts” (2.27min)

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Swan Lies About Mortgage Payments

4 May

Proof below.

Too disgusted to comment.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

The Reserve Bank’s decision to leave its cash rate unchanged is good news for households and businesses doing it tough in Australia’s current patchwork economy, Treasurer Wayne Swan says.

“Following today’s decision, an average family with a $300,000 mortgage is still paying nearly $160 less each month in repayments than they were when we came to government,” Mr Swan said in a brief statement.

“That’s a saving in the order of $1,880 a year – extra money that’s particularly important given the cost of living pressures many families are facing.”

From the Reserve Bank of Australia Statistics (click to enlarge):

Howard Government – March 1996

Rudd Government – November 2007

UPDATE:

Thanks Wayne. You super little economic manager you:

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Labor’s Date With Fate

3 May

On February 24th 2010, Barnaby wrote an article for The Australian (published 12:00am Feb 25th), wherein he uttered nine words that now serve as both the tagline for this blog, and a stark reminder to the nation of Barnaby’s wisdom and foresight:

If we keep borrowing at this rate Australia and all who rely on the government to provide a basic service of health, defence, subsidised medicine, childcare, unemployment benefits, pensions, are all going to arrive at a point of reckoning. Stresses will be placed on the government budget because we did not manage the debt at a point where it was manageable.

If you do not manage debt, debt manages you.

Prophetic.

Precisely 12 months to the day from when Barnaby penned those fateful words, Julia Gillard announced to the nation that the government she leads would introduce a carbon (dioxide) tax:

Yesterday Gillard announced the architecture of her pricing plan, but it was only foundations and scaffolding. Floorboards have yet to be laid or walls erected.

As Abbott quickly pointed out, her plan is a blatant breach of Gillard’s election promise not to introduce a carbon tax.

What would possess Labor to take such a huge political risk, on a policy that has (so far) cost the jobs of four political leaders?

Simple.

They have blown hundreds of billions on botched roof insulation.  Unwanted and overpriced school halls.  Rorted “green” schemes.  The Nation Bankrupting Network.  And many more EPIC FAIL thought bubble policies.  Now, with an Interest-on-debt cost of more than $10 billion per year, and no discipline to simply stop borrowing and spending, they need the billions in extra revenue that a carbon dioxide tax would raise:

MYEFO 2010-11, Appendix B, Note 10: Interest Expense

A week from today, the Goose will hand down his fourth budget.  His fourth unbalanced budget. And a new record budget deficit.

If pensioners are targeted, Family Tax benefits slashed, childcare rebates cut, or any other essential service that you rely on is affected, now you know why.

Labor’s debt is out of control.

If you do not manage debt, debt manages you.

Barnaby is right.

UPDATE:

Your business suffering thanks to the AUD exchange rate?  Michael Stutchbury says the deficit is driving up the dollar:

Wayne Swan complains that the soaring dollar is blowing out his budget deficit by crunching non-mining company profits.

But the more fundamental story is that Canberra’s structural budget weakness is helping to drive the Australian currency to its new post-float high of $US1.10…

Instead of being close to $50bn in the red, the budget already should be building up a solid surplus buffer to stabilise the mining boom economy.

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Goose’s $2Bn Shock ‘N Awe Intervention

28 Apr

Just checking the AOFM website to confirm any changes to tomorrow’s scheduled $700M Treasury bond auction, and found this bombshell announcement:

(click to enlarge)

So, another $2 billion (that’s $2,000,000,000) in short-dated Treasury debt was auctioned off today.

Did anyone see that coming?  And why the shock ‘n awe of a previously-unannounced auction, to the tune of $2 billion?

Could it be that the rapidly rising Aussie dollar, combined with fast-growing inflationary pressures, has forced this incompetent government into a “necessary” money markets intervention – (ie) selling extra AUD-denominated government debt, in an attempt to keep a lid on the AUD?

Yahoo! Finance - Charts - AUD/USD (click to enlarge)

If so, then when (if ever) will Goose and his fellow incompetents be held to account for driving those inflationary pressures in the first place, with their hundreds-of-billions in reckless and wasteful spending on overpriced school halls, ceiling insulation, the NBN, etc etc?

UPDATE:

If this was an intervention in money markets to cap the rapidly rising AUD, it seems to have worked. For now –

(click to enlarge)

For interest, here’s how the AOFM describes its Cash Management program:

Short-term funding needs can be met by increasing the volume of Treasury Notes on issue…

And here’s how they describe the Issuance Program for auctions of Treasury notes (as distinct from Treasury bonds):

Treasury Notes are short-term debt securities used primarily to meet within-year funding flows. Issuance decisions are made weekly and depend on the Government’s projected daily cash position for the weeks ahead. Treasury Notes are not expected to make a major contribution to overall funding for the 2010-11 financial year as a whole…

Tenders for the issue of Treasury Notes will be held on Thursdays, with details of the tenors (sic) and amounts to be offered announced at noon on the Friday of the preceding week.

Unless I missed something, the AOFM did not pre-announce today’s $2bn T-note auction at noon last Friday.  Granted, it was Good Friday. But I did not spot an announcement at any time during this week either.

Given the obvious immediate effect on the AUD this afternoon (see charts), and particularly in consideration of the media storm in recent days that followed the shock inflation figures, I smell a money market intervention – for pure political expediency.

With the public already concerned about rising cost of living, a growing revolt against the carbon tax, and plummeting polls for Labor, the last thing this government needs right now is the public spooked even further by the spectre of further rises in interest rates to hold back inflation.

So could it be that this government is going from bad, to worse, to calamitous, on fiscal management?  Could it be true that they are now compounding their first error of creating inflationary pressures by wanton borrowing-and-spending, by engaging in an ad hoc currency intervention – one that throws us into yet another $2bn of debt – solely in order to cap the rising AUD and calm inflation fears, a few days before the RBA meets to decide on interest rates, and, less than a fortnight out from the Budget?

UPDATE 2:

April 29, 9.14am –

From FXStreet:

AUD/USD Closing In On Yesterday’s High

Well now, that went well, didn’t it Wayne?  $2bn more debt just to save face before the Budget .. and the effect lasts less than 12 hours.

(click to enlarge)

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Korean’s Use Our Coal, Get Power 30% Cheaper Than We Do

28 Apr

Barnaby on ABC PM yesterday:

One of the most basic necessities of life, the greatest reflection of our standard of living, is the price of power.

I remember that a very salient time for me was having a discussion with my mother-in-law, and talking about the carbon price, and her quietly sitting back and in sort of a disdainful way, which I think reflects the disgust held by so many in the community.

She said look, you know, in winter, in the New England, when she’s working on Meals and Wheels, it’s at times it’s very easy to find out where the pensioner is, because you will find them in bed because that is the only place they can afford to stay warm.

So they’re not there because they’re sick, they’re there because they’re cold, and I find that disgusting that would be happening in my nation now. We’re the nation that supplies coal to the world, yet we can’t afford to look after our own.

Another reflection on that is the people of South Korea manage to deliver power to their people, at 30 per cent cheaper than what we can deliver it to ours, yet they’re doing it with our coal after a journey of, I suppose, around about 10,000 kilometres.

So.  We merrily sell our coal to the world, for them to use in their coal-fired power stations.  But we introduce a big new tax on our own coal-fired power stations.  So that our already-overpriced electricity, will become even more overpriced … by (minority) government decree.

(Oh yes, and we refuse to consider nuclear.  The only viable, base-load power alternative to coal.  But, we merrily keep selling our uranium to the world, for their nuclear power stations).

#@^&%$!?!

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Costello: Wayne’s World A Parallel Reality

28 Apr

Peter Costello has stepped up with some hard facts and figures to debunk the Goose’s latest myth-making efforts.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

Five years ago the prices of Australia’s exports began rising sharply. The price of iron ore hit about $US30 a tonne and thermal coal about $US50. Australia had not seen export prices like that in a very long time.

The federal government was running budget surpluses. It had paid off its debt so it established a sovereign wealth fund – the Future Fund – to save for the future. This was to prepare for a time when things were more normal and to cover the costs of the ageing population. About $60 billion was deposited into it.

…
This year the iron ore price is nudging $US170 a tonne (about five times what it was when the Coalition was ”wasting” the boom) and the coal price is about $US130 (nearly three times the price of five years ago). If you look at a graph of historical prices, we are at the peak of Mount Everest. The rise of 2006 looks like Monticello – a small rise visible only because conditions were quite depressed before it.
The Reserve Bank’s index of commodity prices shows an all-time high in March 2011. The index is nearly double where it was in 2006 and triple the levels of the late 1990s. Adjusting back into Australian dollars it rose 32 per cent in the past year.

And mining profits are super strong. In 2006, BHP’s profit after abnormals was a massive $10 billion. This year it reported that profit for just the first half-year.

…

Since it was apparently wasteful to run budget surpluses, build a savings fund and cut tax in 2006, Swan could show us how things should be done now we are in a real boom. He could, but apparently he will not, because last week he gave a pre-budget speech lamenting how hard everything had become and saying that we should not expect too much, not even a balanced budget in May, let alone a substantial contribution to the Future Fund. And although he has found a way of sharing the pain of the Queensland floods with a flood levy, we should not expect to share the prosperity of the mining boom through any tax cuts.

There is reality. And then there is Wayne’s world.

In Wayne’s world a boom is something that happens to others, not to him. In his world, others find rivers of gold, but for him the river never rises.

In Wayne’s world, Labor is a superior economic manager which runs into bad luck all the time, while Liberals are poor financial managers who waste opportunities and somehow get good outcomes when the dice fall their way. It’s a weird place inside Wayne’s world.

Costello’s depiction of Wayne Swan as living in a “Wayne’s World” parallel universe has some rather interesting and ironic … parallels.

In the movie Wayne’s World, our hero Wayne falls in love with Cassandra Wong, a Chinese-American lead singer for a heavy metal band.

In our real-life version of Wayne’s World, our hero Wayne has fallen in love with “Cassandra Wong”, the Chinese-American buyer/s of 73% of our 189+ Billion sovereign debt.  This “Cassandra” has sung a tune about an endless China boom, promising decades of heavy metal-fuelled prosperity for Australia as a result.

And Wayne has fallen for her siren song.

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Friday On My Mind – Another $700m In Debt

27 Apr

While most everyone else is obsessing about this Friday’s royal wedding, I’m thinking about another kind of “marriage” contract.

Til Debt Do Us Part.

You see, $189.84 Billion in debt is not a big enough ball-and-chain for the Goose.  Come this Friday, he’s signing us up to another $700 Million in the red contract.

Noone with two brain cells to rub together could still believe this government’s line that they will produce a surplus budget for the year (just 1 year, mind) in 2012-13.  Their ongoing dalliance with debt is all the evidence needed.  They are addicts, who will never go a single year without borrowing-and-spending far more than they take from us in taxes.

The simple fact is, we’ll all be paying for Goose’s indiscretions.  For decades to come.  Our creditors must be paid.

So tell us Wayne … who’s buying now?  Who Really Owns 73% Of Our Debt?

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Deutsche Bank Agrees – Barnaby Was Right

24 Apr

Will Goose, Henry, Stevens, and Co. now step up and apologise to Barnaby for mocking his warning about US debt levels?

US finances are in almost as troubled a state as the worst-hit members of the euro zone, economists say, underscoring the pressing need for Washington to reach agreement on how to reduce the deficit.

A gauge of “sovereign risk” from economists at Deutsche Bank placed the United States just behind Greece, Ireland and Portugal among 14 advanced economies.

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This Little Goose Went To Market

21 Apr

This Little Goose Went To Market

With the Budget coming up, let’s take a look at how well the government has been managing our >$189 billion gross national debt “investment” portfolio.

The Australian Office of Financial Management’s (AOFM) official Overview of the Portfolio document makes for interesting reading (click images to enlarge) –

AOFM Portfolio Overview - Face Value

AOFM Portfolio Overview - Market Value

Note the difference at 31 March 2011 between the Face Value, and the Market Value, of the “Physical debt” and the “Physical assets“, respectively.

The Market Value of the debt in “our” national portfolio is now greater than the Face Value, to the tune of $7.9 billion.  And the Market Value of the assets in our portfolio is now $3 billion less than the Face Value.

Notice also the standout feature – that our portfolio is being taken ever deeper into the red.  To the tune of $15 billion (15,000,000,000) every 3 months, through end September last year.  And by a further $23 billion (23,000,000,000), in just the last 6 months.

Seems someone forgot to tell Wayne Swan that the GFC peaked 31 months ago, in September 2008.  And, that there is an ongoing and worsening European debt crisis, the US has been placed on negative credit outlook for the first time in history, and the World Bank President has warned the global economy is “one shock away from a full-blown crisis”.

Wayne must be oblivious to all this.  Because this month he authorised the AOFM to “invest” up to $4 billion more in Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) – yes, those things that blew up America’s financial system.  Read the detail at the AOFM website, and you’ll see our Swanny is even happy to “invest” more borrowed billions in RMBS’ that hold Low Doc loans exceeding 10% of the initial principal value of the security pool.  Seems he’s never heard of “sub-prime”.

Oh yes, and to pay for these – and the ongoing mega-billion NBN disaster – he’s all set to borrow even more hundreds of millions at the end of next week.

Would you want this Goose managing your investment portfolio?

Bring on an election!

Roast Goose

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Barnaby’s Quick Quiz

14 Apr

Media Release – Senator Barnaby Joyce, 14 April 2011:

Q. Who am I? Two weeks ago there were 183.8 of me, this week there is 187.3 of me.
A. Billions of dollars in gross debt.
Is there any way we can get the penny to drop on why this is not healthy for the Australian people? Look at it this way; we had all those demonstrations on Tuesday because of a prospective $400 million loss in medical research funding; in two weeks we dropped almost 9 times that amount. We could have built the Toowoomba Range Crossing twice, or we could have completed the required sections of the inland rail for this amount. We could have put slightly more money, than $1.4 million towards myrtle rust, an introduced direct threat to eucalypts in Australia.
Something smells. Ken Henry has left, Julia Gillard is panicking, and our gross debt is tearing through the roof.
Seeing as Mr Swan always talks about net debt, maybe he would like to find some of these funds he used in netting off this $187.3 billion and use it now to pay off some of the debt. I will tell you there are two things, he won’t be able to tell us where the money is and secondly, if he did know where it was, he would be terrified of what would happen if he actually used it to pay off the debt. For example, the largest section of the money used in the netting process is for public servants’ superannuation.
I have been banging on about this for about two years and I am not going stop till Wayne stops borrowing and starts paying the money back.
We have found ourselves in this position because we have got a government that spent like a person who should have been swabbed. We will look back in history and cringe as to how on earth we got ourselves into such strife. $2.5 billion on ceiling insulation, $16.8 billion on school halls and random $900 cheques, for who only knows what purpose followed by a little home cooked policy cake to cool the planet. Australia asks where do these manic ideas come from, and how on earth are you going to repay this debt?

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